Analyst: Without a solution to the key security problem for Transcaucasia, talks about democracy and freedom will have no result

ArmInfo. The European Union, economically and technologically attractive for Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan over the past 10 years, has not been able to present a coherent program for resolving ethno-political conflicts in the region, Sergey Markedonov, a leading researcher at the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security at the Institute of International Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations expressed such an opinion to ArmInfo.

“It is clear that the rhetoric of Brussels regarding the refusal to recognize the independence of Abkhazia or the inadmissibility of the status quo around Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be considered as such a program. And the situation over the 10 years of the EU’s Eastern Partnership program has not changed in this direction. Accordingly, it seems that without the resolution of this key security problem for the Transcaucasus, all talk about new democratic institutions, investments and freedoms will not lead to any results, "he stressed.

At the same time, the three countries of the Caucasus themselves have a completely different position and agenda of cooperation with the EU, according to analyst estimates. Limited in regional isolation, Armenia seeks to diversify economic ties without abandoning a strategic alliance with Russia. Georgia still sees in the European Union a force capable of helping to solve the problem of the country's territorial integrity. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is more focused on the business model without the adoption of strict commitments to the EU on human rights and civil liberties.

Thus, according to Markedonov, the problem of the effectiveness of the "united Europe" policy in the Caucasus direction continues to be of key importance. And in this context, it should be considered that the Eastern Partnership received the support of Brussels largely due to the Caucasian political dynamics. At the same time, the implementation of the Eastern Partnership brought a strategic choice to Georgia in favor of the West and selective, with different formats, cooperation with Brussels in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

As a result, having as its goal entry into NATO and the EU, Tbilisi, according to the analyst, is viewed in Brussels as an avant-gardist of Eastern Partnership in the Caucasus. Refusing to sign the Association Agreement with the EU in 2013, Armenia caused it with Russia's reliability in ensuring its security. Later, Yerevan established cooperation with Brussels on the basis of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement.

In turn, according to the analyst, values ​​in the negotiations between Brussels and Baku were always in the background, which did not prevent the EU and Azerbaijan from reaching agreements in July 2018 on strengthening institutions and effective management, economic development and market opportunities, energy efficiency and mobility. At the same time, human rights and the Karabakh settlement, for obvious reasons, were not among the priorities of Baku and Brussels.

“In the light of the abovementioned, the implementation of the Eastern Partnership according to a single standard seems at least problematic. All countries-partners have too different economic indicators, foreign policy interests and values. And, of course, relations with the same Russia. So, if for some of them, the containment of Russia is the most important priority; for others, Moscow is important as a guarantee of security or advantageous economic cooperation, ”the analyst concluded.