Russian expert: The decision on the Golan heights can not serve as a  precedent in the Karabakh settlement

ArmInfo.At present, Azerbaijan seeks not to escalate the situation in the Karabakh conflict zone with the expectation that the Armenian society in the light of recent  political processes will continue to  separate, which will create a  favorable situation for military revenge.

This opinion was expressed by Alexander Krylov, President of the Scientific Society of Caucasian Studies , in an interview with ArmInfo, speaking about the  forthcoming meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in  Vienna, as well as expectations from it.

Touching upon the statement of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol  Pashinyan that during the meeting with Aliyev the issue of returning  Artsakh to the negotiating table will be considered, the expert noted  that this requirement of Yerevan is a sensible idea. "Having agreed  at one time to exclude Karabakh from the negotiations, Yerevan, in  fact, practically admitted that it was an interstate conflict and  added arguments to the position of Azerbaijan that this is a problem  of <occupied territories>," Krylov said.

Another question, he stressed, is how to return Karabakh to the  negotiating table. "The mediators have already noted that they do not  reject this idea and are ready for such a format, if the parties  agree. But there is no real hope that Azerbaijan will agree, on the  contrary - Baku expects that a situation favorable to a military  revenge will be created. Including, a stratification in Armenian  society will lead to this, "the expert explained.

Taking into account the existing realities, as Krylov notes, it is  obvious that the negotiation process wil become frozen for a long  time, since the proposal of Pashinyan (on the return of Artsakh to  the talks, ed.  note) is unacceptable for Aliyev. "The maximum that  can take place is the regular meetings organized by the Minsk  mediators. And the result of these meetings will be the same as we  have seen for the last twenty years - meetings for the sake of  meetings," he said, reiterating that there were no prerequisites for  advancing negotiations, since neither side is willing to make  concessions. Moreover, Krylov noted, the Armenian side has even  recently toughened the position on the settlement, taking into  account the internal political situation in order to avoid  accusations of national betrayal by their opponents. At the same  time, the expert predicted that Baku will not go on a military  adventure now, because the Armenian society is not yet stratified so  that Azerbaijan would achieve quick military success.

According to Krylov, the geopolitical processes can also hinder  Baku's military operation. "For example, the external factor can play  its role if militants will be forced out of Syria and Iraq somewhere  north to Azerbaijan. In this case, Azerbaijan can be seriously  affected as it has a serious base of Islamic radicalism," the expert  said.

Responding to a question about whether the US recognition of the  Golan Heights for Israel can become a precedent in the Karabakh  conflict, Krylov expressed skepticism: "You can talk about anything.  Trump can say that the Moon belongs to the United States or Ukraine,  but can he keep it? I think that on the contrary, after Trump's move,  Israel will get big problems in the form of growing terrorism and the  level of conflict in the region. So, to say that the current  situation can be a precedent or benefit from some kind of settlement  is impossible, on the contrary - it is fraught about the aggravation  of the situation in the region. " Earlier, Artsakh's President  Spokesman David Babayan said that recognition of the Golan Heights  for Israel directly echoes the problem of the Karabakh's  hydro-security. <The Golan Heights is primarily a hydro-donor of  Israel. In making this decision, Trump emphasized the security  component without any reference to history. In this context, we have  a powerful opportunity in the same way to advance the importance of  Karvachar from the point of view of ensuring the critical security  component of Armenia and Artsakh. After all, Karvachar, as well as  the Golan Heights, is a  hydro-donor region iwithout any reference to  history and other components, from a purely strategic point of view.  Not to use the messages coming from a great power in this context is  simply unacceptable", Babayan concluded.