Russian political scientist: Armenia`s current course makes a final  rupture of relations with Russia a matter of time

ArmInfo. From a Russian perspective, Armenia's current course makes a final rupture of  relations with Russia a matter of time. This was stated on April 3 in  Yerevan by Dmitry Suslov, political scientist and deputy director and  research fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and  International Studies at the Faculty of World Economy and  International Affairs at the National Research University Higher  School of Economics. The conference was organized by the Analytical  Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives (ACSSI).

According to him, the military and economic weakening of Iran  contributes to the strengthening of Turkey and Azerbaijan's influence  in the Transcaucasus, which is not in the interests of either Russia  or Armenia.  "With Iran weakening, Yerevan should be interested in  stabilizing and even improving relations with Russia. However, this  is not currently the case. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's  recent visit to Moscow is perceived not as an attempt to improve ties  with Russia, but as an attempt to hedge risks in the Russian  direction amid the country's continuing pro-Western course. This also  serves to mitigate domestic criticism of Pashinyan as an anti-Russian  candidate before the upcoming elections, thereby weakening the  opposition," the political scientist believes.

At the same time, he acknowledged that the weakening of Russia's  position and the change in the geopolitical situation in the  Transcaucasus occurred after the liquidation of the Nagorno-Karabakh  Republic. According to him, the previous status quo no longer exists  and cannot be restored, since it relied on Russia as a mediator  between Yerevan and Baku. "Currently, there is neither a status quo  nor an acute military conflict. There is no Nagorno-Karabakh  Republic, nor even a need for Russia as a mediator. This is unfair,  given Russia's role in resolving the 2020 conflict and the presence  of Russian peacekeepers until Azerbaijan's final conquest of the NKR.  Nevertheless, this is a reality that can no longer be changed. At the  same time, geographic factors cannot be ignored: Russia's physical  presence in the Caucasus, economic ties, and Russia's interest in  preventing the emergence of overtly hostile countries and proxy  rivals are immutable constants. In the new geopolitical conditions,  Russia's interest lies not necessarily in a central role, but in  ensuring that no external player can occupy that position. This means  maintaining a balance of power in the Transcaucasus and preventing  the dominance of any other great power, especially an adversary of  Russia, and preventing the transformation of countries in the region  into anti-Russian proxies, as in the Moldovan scenario," Suslov  explained.

In this regard, the political scientist noted that, from a Russian  perspective, the current Armenian government is pursuing a systemic  policy of reorientation toward the West, while hedging against the  Russian factor and maintaining cooperation with Russia. According to  him, Russia understands that even this cooperation is being  implemented out of necessity and to the extent necessary for Armenia  in terms of economy and security. However, Suslov noted that such  cooperation is gradually waning, and the current course inevitably  leads to Armenia's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union, the  withdrawal of the Russian military base from Gyumri, and a general  deterioration in Russian-Armenian relations. "This is happening as  Armenia's relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as with the  EU and the US, are improving. Thus, from a Russian perspective,  Armenia's current course makes a final rupture with Russia a matter  of time-not a question of 'if,' but 'when,'" the expert emphasized.

He noted that Russia perceives this not as diversification, but as a  gradual shift to the side of an adversary that is open about its  plans and preparing for war with Russia. He expressed the opinion  that this development is comfortable for the current Armenian  authorities. "However, Pashinyan's visit to Moscow showed that  Russia's patience is running out. While Russia is not interested in a  sharp escalation of the situation, it is not going to simply watch  Armenia drift westward, gradually reducing cooperation with Russia.  Therefore, Russia is asking Armenia to make a decision: it is not  opposed to deepening Yerevan's relations with the EU and the US, but  this should not be accompanied by the exclusion of Russia. "This  applies in particular to areas such as railways, nuclear energy, and  the attitude toward those political forces that position themselves  as Russia's friends," the political scientist noted.

Suslov believes that in the current geopolitical situation, Armenia  should be interested not in exacerbating relations, but ideally in  rapprochement with Russia, while continuing dialogue with the US and  the EU.  Summing up, he noted that the guarantee of peace for Armenia  lies not in recognizing the new territorial status quo and erasing  the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic from national memory, but in  maintaining friendly relations with Russia. "Russia remains the main  deterrent for Armenia's geopolitical adversaries in the region, and  its absence will make a new war inevitable," Suslov concluded.