Analyst: Provocations in Nakhichevan create risk of new hotspot in  Syunik

ArmInfo.Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's harsh response to the "drone strikes" in Nakhichevan points to the possibility of a new hotspot in Syunik, Armenia, as stated by military and political analyst Alexander  Tikhansky during a Minsk-Yerevan video conference "Will Trump Succeed in Drawing Turkey into a Conflict with Iran?"

In this regard, he noted that almost 40% of the Azerbaijani army is  concentrated near the Iranian border. He also emphasized that the  strikes are an obvious provocation, similar to the tactics used by  Israel. "The issue of Syunik has become a pressing issue today. The  provocation in Nakhchivan provides grounds for declaring the  necessity to protect our compatriots and the possibility of occupying  a 'corridor' under the pretext of a Gulf War. I'm not claiming this  will happen. However, Aliyev's harsh response to the free riders  indicates the possibility of another flashpoint emerging - in  Syunik," the expert believes.

Speaking about the possibility of Turkey being drawn into the  conflict at the initiative of US President Donald Trump amid these  provocations, Tikhansky recalled that Turkey and Azerbaijan share the  concept of "one nation, one state." However, he also noted that  American interests in the region often conflict with Turkey's  interests, particularly in the context of the Kurdish issue. "The US  is prepared to arm Kurdish tribal leaders, who, by the way, have  already firmly responded that they are not prepared to participate in  this process. America's intention to draw them into the conflict runs  counter to the interests of Turkey, for which the Kurdish issue is  the number one domestic priority. In 2025, militants were trained in  Iraqi Kurdistan to participate in protests and engage in armed  action, but Kurdish intelligence agencies handed them over to Iran.  This assistance from Turkey to Iran was indispensable, and played a  significant role in suppressing these protests," the analyst  recalled.

Nevertheless, he added that the Americans have the ability to  galvanize Iranian Kurdistan and expressed conviction that such  attempts will be made to win over certain forces to their side.

In turn, Alexander Kozlov, a PhD candidate in economics, noted that  today even the Persian Gulf countries are expressing dissatisfaction  with the US goals it pursued in establishing military bases on their  territory.  "They thought this would ensure security, but in reality,  it became a magnet for problems. Today, the question arises about  these countries' mistrust of the United States. In the next month,  the situation could change dramatically: although the bombings  continue and the rhetoric remains, active US assistance is not being  provided. It is obvious, the messages the US sent to these  countries-supposedly to maintain stability-are not true. This could  result in countries beginning to turn away from the US, leading  Turkey to align with countries more closely aligned with its  interests," the expert concluded.