Baku, Ankara expand instruments of influence on Iran - expert

ArmInfo. Baku and Ankara continue to expand their instruments of influence over Iran, which could be used in the future. This opinion was expressed on his Facebook page by Varuzhan Geghamyan, a PhD candidate and Turkologist, considering the possible developments surrounding Iran, particularly in the  context of potential actions by Azerbaijan and Turkey.

However, the expert noted that these are purely preliminary  observations, which, if the situation changes, could lead to  different consequences. Geghamyan expressed his conviction that  military action against Iran at this stage cannot bring any real  benefits to Azerbaijan, while at the same time creating numerous  problems with potentially catastrophic consequences.

"Azerbaijan, geographically sandwiched between Russia and Iran, is  incapable of waging a war against its southern neighbor on its own.  Without Turkey's assistance, the country has extremely limited  military capabilities, as evidenced by the war in Artsakh in 2020,"  the expert noted.

At the same time, the Turkologist continued, Turkish and Azerbaijani  military systems have continued to integrate with each other in  recent years, making any military operation impossible without  cooperation and coordination with Turkey, especially against a state  like Iran. According to Geghamyan, Turkey is also not interested in  participating in military operations at this stage. "Pragmatic  calculations show that, with limited options for action, Turkey  expects to see Iran weakened by the war, not divided and fragmented.   The latter, according to Turkish calculations, will be able to  neutralize many problems, such as Kurdish separatism, but will be  more dependent on Turkey," the Turkologist believes.

This strategic approach, as Geghamyan noted, forces both Turkey and  Azerbaijan to act according to the unique logic of a "tactical  pause": awaiting developments while preparing for possible scenarios,  including ground operations on Iranian territory. The expert believes  the latter scenario is currently unlikely, but he noted that it is  entirely feasible if the Iranian central government is weakened.

Geghamyan then explained the two problems that the anti-Iranian  rhetoric in Azerbaijan has been addressing in recent days. On the one  hand, as the Turkologist noted, it is aimed at satisfying the high  expectations of its own society that have developed since 2020, while  on the other hand, to a certain extent, it serves the interests of  external players, such as Israel.

"In this logic, new symbolic actions are possible, such as Iran's  call to Azerbaijan (Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev - ed.), which will further  escalate tensions and deepen the conflict. At the same time, Baku and  Ankara continue to expand their instruments of influence over Iran,  which could be used in the future, for example, to demonstrate their  capabilities among Iran's Turkic-speaking population," the expert  noted, without specifying these instruments.  In summary, Geghamyan  noted that at this stage, he does not see any pragmatic calculations  that would compel Azerbaijan to engage in military action against  Iran in any format. However, he noted that there are also no signs  that the situation will resolve in the coming days.

"On the contrary, it will worsen. Therefore, the situation may  change, especially since it is impossible to completely control the  growing tensions," the Turkologist concluded.

As a reminder, on the morning of February 28, the United States and  Israel attacked Iran. In retaliation, Iran launched strikes against  American bases in the Middle East. As a result of the US-Israeli  aggression, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several  high-ranking Iranian military officials were killed.

On March 8, the Iranian Council of Experts elected Ayatollah Seyed  Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Seyed Khamenei,  as the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. On March  5, Azerbaijan accused Iran of a drone attack on Nakhchivan and  threatened to take appropriate measures in response to this  unfriendly move. Moreover, on March 6, Azerbaijan evacuated its  diplomatic staff from Iran and closed the Azerbaijani-Iranian border  for several days.

Iran denied any involvement in the attack on Nakhchivan. Furthermore,  on the evening of March 7, a representative of the IRGC's Khatam  al-Anbiya Central Command Center called on neighboring Azerbaijan to  withdraw Zionists from its country and not to jeopardize the security  of its own people and Islamic Iran, as well as to prevent the spread  of instability in the region. At the same time, according to numerous  analysts, Iran would never take irrational steps in the current  situation, and the drone strike was most likely a provocation by a  third party designed to create a pretext to draw Azerbaijan into the  conflict.