Russian expert: Political and geopolitical contradictions escalating  around  TRIPP

ArmInfo.Political and geopolitical contradictions surrounding the "Trump Route for  International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP) not only remain unresolved but continue to escalate, as stated by Andrey Areshev, a political observer and expert at the Strategic Culture Foundation, during a Moscow-Yerevan video conference, while discussing  developments unfolding in the South Caucasus.

First and foremost, the expert noted  that signals are coming from  Iran, which, as Areshev recalled, is in a difficult situation, given  the growing threat of an American strike and tense negotiations with  the United States. "Nevertheless, Iran remains a serious player, and  it's no coincidence that immediately after US Vice President J.D.  Vance's visit, it was announced that Armenia and Iran could sign some  kind of strategic agreement this year," the political scientist  noted.

At the same time, Areshev continued, the Russian side is undergoing a  rather complex process of preparing for negotiations. He recalled  that Russia, represented by Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk,  has repeatedly confirmed its interest in negotiations regarding the  country's possible participation in communications projects in  Armenia. "And we see various extra-regional forces also clearly  expressing their interests in unblocking or, conversely, continuing  to block certain transport routes. For example, there is increasing  talk of using the 'Trump Route' for the export and transit of rare  earth metals and other minerals. In other words, this route is being  considered as part of the so-called Middle Corridor, designed to  connect Turkey and Central Asia. At the same time, it is clear that  this project could become the site of further US-Chinese, US-Iranian,  or other conflicts, which would negatively impact its operation,  especially considering that work is only in the initial stages," the  expert noted, recalling that the President of Azerbaijan mentioned  2028 as a possible launch date for the route.  Areshev pointed out  that it concerns the construction of roads that will be used for  various purposes, and not always for commercial gain. "Transportation  is not always commercial in nature; in some cases, even frequently,  it has a geopolitical component," the expert believes.

For example, he says, the Meghri section is being considered as the  so-called Middle Corridor, which is envisioned as a route bypassing  Russia, connecting Central Asia and the Caspian shores through the  Caucasus with Turkey and Europe. "It's no coincidence that both  Europeans and Americans are showing considerable interest in this  route. However, given the growing disagreements between the European  Union and the United States, I'm far from certain that Washington and  Brussels will act in concert on Caucasus issues. This, incidentally,   creates further division and could have unpredictable consequences,"  the political scientist noted.  According to him, various interest  groups are present in Armenia's Syunik-ranging from the European  monitoring mission to Russian border guards-and Azerbaijan is nearby.  Turkey has a significant presence in Nakhichevan, and Iran is on the  opposite bank of the Araks River. "Listing these countries provides  an objective picture of what's happening in the region-the involved  forces and their interests. This could all play out in completely  different ways, and various scenarios are not excluded in the coming  years. For example, we must understand that where logistics are  involved, there could also be a military presence, which is of  interest to Turkey and other players," Areshev concluded.