Control over Armenia`s Syunik to enable U.S. to implement a long-term strategy to "contain" Russia and Iran - expert

ArmInfo. The Nagorno-Karabakh  conflict has shown that the role of small countries can be great, and  in this sense Armenia has the ability to change the situation in the  region.  This opinion was expressed in an interview with ArmInfo by  Caucasus expert Karen Igityan, who was previously banned from  entering the country by the Armenian authorities, regarding the  attempts of the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem to obtain an  extraterritorial corridor through Armenia's Syunik.

The expert is confident that the implementation of the  Turkish-Azerbaijani project, which will connect Azerbaijan with  Nakhichevan through the territory of Armenia, will change the entire  configuration in the South Caucasus. "In particular, Turkey will gain  direct access to Central Asia, which will sharply strengthen its  position, and will be used against Russia and Iran. Armenia, in turn,  will find itself isolated as a result of this step, since the only  active border left will be with Georgia," he emphasized.

Igityan noted that this is the goal pursued by the  Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem. According to the expert, both countries  do not see Armenia on the Caucasus map in their long-term plans, and  even if they do, then only as an enclave surrounded by Azerbaijan and  Turkey on all sides. "If we want to understand what Azerbaijan and  Turkey really want from Armenia, then we must pay attention to the  demands that Turkey made in 1918 and 1920, as well as Azerbaijan in  1919, to our country. In both cases, we will notice that no transit  role was envisaged for Armenia. In general, Armenia should either not  be in the plans of Turkey and Azerbaijan, or it is a very small state  that can be destroyed by them at any moment. For Azerbaijan, Armenia  is simply the so-called "Western Azerbaijan," the Caucasus expert  noted.

At the same time, he is sure that the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem is  already implementing this project.  Igityan believes that Turkey and  the United States are trying to get a corridor that is not controlled  by Armenia or Russia in order to freely transfer military equipment  to Central Asia in the future, as part of the planned confrontation.

"Moreover, the creation of a new conflict zone in Central Asia will  be directed again against Russia.  Accordingly, for the United  States, the project allows the implementation of a long-term strategy  to "contain" Russia and Iran, isolate them from each other, and  create new hotbeds of tension, thanks to which large resources of  these countries will be directed in the direction needed by the  United States," the expert continued.

At the same time, Igityan is sure that the presence of an American  private company on the territory of Armenia will represent the  implementation of the same corridor, since it will essentially be a  transfer of control over the road to the Americans, which will also  weaken Armenia's position. "The transfer of control over an expensive  private company raises a number of questions. For example, will this  American company attract the participation of Turkish capital and  will it be possible to track this in general? Will it be transferred  later to some countries, for example, Turkey and so on. However, one  thing is indisputable: the transfer of control over the route to the  US will ultimately lead to the isolation of Armenia from Iran, as  well as uncontrolled arms supplies to the Caucasus and Central Asia,"  the expert is sure.

"In Iran, this project is called the "NATO Turan corridor". Tehran  understands well that if it is opened, and thus the alternative route  through Armenia is lost, Turkey and Azerbaijan can either block all  transport flows from Iran to the north, or raise transit prices so  much that they will become unprofitable for Iran.  Thus, Iran will  lose its land connection with the north in the Caucasus direction.  And if the implementation of the project also leads to a sharp  increase in the role of Turkey, and NATO in general, in Central Asia,  then Iran will also lose the opportunity to communicate with Russia  along the Central Asian route. The same applies to Russia. The  so-called "Zangezur corridor" will block Russia's access to the south  along routes independent of NATO, at least by land," the Caucasus  expert explained. In this vein, the expert noted that today the  restraining factors for the implementation of this project are  primarily the positions of Russia and Iran. The political scientist  noted that Iran has concentrated quite large military forces in the  north and constantly declares that opening the corridor and violating  Armenia's sovereignty is unacceptable.

At the same time, he is sure that Russia's current busyness in  Ukraine does not mean that it will not react to its opponents'  attempts to seize this route.

"It is unlikely that Azerbaijan wants to face the Russian army,  which, if the war with Ukraine ends, could move to the Caucasus. It  should be noted that we are talking about a large army that has gone  through heavy fighting and thus gained unique experience in waging a  modern war," the expert noted.

At the same time, as Igityan noted, the extraterritorial corridor  threatens the vital interests of Iran and Russia. In particular,  according to him, for Iran the creation of such a corridor means the  loss of the border with Armenia, as a result of which in the north  Iran will actually border only with countries that are members of the  Organization of Turkic States (OTG). According to him, this is why  Iran will take all possible actions to prevent the "cutting" of a  corridor on the ground.

At the same time, the expert does not see any opportunities for the  implementation of the government project "Crossroads of the World",  which, according to the Armenian authorities, fits into the global  routes passing through the region and "will open up new opportunities  for Armenia".

"Turkey and Azerbaijan have kept Armenia in isolation for decades and  are not going to lift it. I do not see any opportunities for the  implementation of the "Crossroads of Peace", since the countries that  are supposed to open their borders and establish good neighborly  relations within the framework of this project do not want this. We  see this in the policies that, for example, Azerbaijan and Turkey are  pursuing.  Moreover, Azerbaijan is promoting the rhetoric on all  platforms that Armenia is "Western Azerbaijan", where Azerbaijanis  should live, with "security guarantees" and pre-agreed rights.  Considering the intentions of the parties, I believe that this  project cannot be implemented, moreover, no one will consider it as  an alternative to the route that the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem is  trying to get hold of," Igityan is sure.

In addition, the expert noted that Armenia is already a transit  country, and can continue to be so if it promotes, for example, the  development of infrastructure within the framework of the North-South  international transport corridor. Igityan assured that in this case,  Armenia's transit role will only increase.  "Armenia can really  change a lot in the region, be it through finding new allies,  rearming the army, preventing talks from a position of strength, for  example, "either you give it up "voluntarily" or we take it by  force." Armenia has prospects for pursuing a completely different  policy in the future, moreover, these opportunities exist now. And in  the future, with the right approach, there may be many more of them,"  the expert concluded.

Recall that the Meghri route is a project for a transport route about  40 km long through the territory of the Syunik region of Armenia,  which would provide transport links between the western regions of  Azerbaijan and its exclave, the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic. The  opening of transport routes in the region was envisaged by point 9 of  the trilateral statement of November 9, 2020 by the leaders of  Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is trying to  distort the essence of these agreements and get an extraterritorial  corridor.