A leader without trust, an opposition without support and peace  without concessions:  Nikol Pashinyan`s 7 years in power

ArmInfo. The political survival of Nikol Pashinyan's government now relies less on popularity and  more on  the deep and comprehensive vacuum of trust in Armenia's political system, as  highlighted in a study conducted by Vache Tamrazyan, Deputy Chairman of the Center for Law and Freedom NGO.

The study provides a comprehensive analysis of public approval and trust ratings for the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol  Pashinyan and his government - from the Velvet Revolution of 2018 to mid-2025.

According to the expert, this creates a fragile and unstable  political balance on the way to the important parliamentary elections  in 2026. This study divides Pashinyan's tenure into three stages.   The first stage (2018-mid-2020) is the era of the revolutionary  mandate, characterized by approval ratings above 80%. This period is  marked by the hope and promise of a new Armenia, free from the  corruption and stagnation of the past.

The second stage covers the end of 2020 and 2021, the period of the  44-day war, which led to an irreversible decline in public trust. The  military defeat and the subsequent tripartite ceasefire agreement (of  November 9, 2020 - ed.), perceived by the general public as a  national humiliation, caused a catastrophic and irreversible collapse  of public trust. Pashinyan's approval ratings, which exceeded 84%  before the war, fell sharply and have consistently remained in the  low double digits in the following years. "This gap between the  leader and society turned out to be fundamental and irreparable," the  study says. Despite this collapse, Pashinyan's Civil Contract party  won a convincing victory in the 2021 snap parliamentary elections.  However, this paradoxical result did not indicate the restoration of  the people's mandate, but only emphasized the deep vacuum of trust in  Armenian politics. "The convincing victory of Pashinyan's party,  which restored his mandate, was not due to popular approval, but  against the backdrop of deep public rejection of the alternative,"  Tamrazyan noted.

The third and current phase of Pashinyan's rule (2022-2025) is  characterized by a low level of approval from the population (11-17%)  and has been marked by a series of challenging events: the military  invasion by Azerbaijan, the prolonged blockade of the Lachin  corridor, and, ultimately, the military takeover in September 2023  and ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, it was during this  period that a new, clear popular mandate emerged - strong support for  the government's historic foreign policy course towards  diversification from Russia and towards the West.

This strategic shift -moving away from traditional dependence on  Russia and increasing engagement with the West - is not simply a  project promoted by the ruling elite. It is based on a parallel and  dramatic shift in Armenian public opinion, shaped by the war and a  sense of abandonment by a long-standing ally. Despite the challenges  that  Pashinyan's government faces in gaining domestic legitimacy on  many fronts, there is a clear and growing popular mandate for this  historic shift in geopolitical course>, the study says. According to  Tamrazyan, this pro-Western sentiment has crystallized around the  issue of European integration. The support for joining the EU has  gone beyond narrow professional circles and is now the viewpoint of  the majority. This has provided Pashinyan's government with a popular  mandate for it's declared policy of deeper integration with the EU,  including taking formal steps to launch the accession process.  , the expert  noted.

The study also touched on Pashinyan's course to achieve peace with  Azerbaijan and normalize relations. In the current reality, as the  expert notes, there is public ambivalence towards Azerbaijan and  Turkey. While the Armenian government is actively promoting a peace  agenda, including the "Crossroads of Peace" project aimed at  regulating relations and opening borders with neighbors, society  remains skeptical and divided, as evidenced by all the polls  conducted during this period. About 80% of the Armenian population  does not support making any concessions to Azerbaijan in exchange for  peace. This, according to Tamrazyan, is a serious obstacle to  negotiations, especially regarding Baku's demand to amend the  Constitution of Armenia.

"The government has found itself in a difficult situation: it is  promoting a peace agenda that society theoretically wants, but  ultimately rejects, considering the perceived high cost of peace, and  lack of trust in negotiators. This internal contradiction creates a  permanent political vulnerability, that the opposition systematically  exploits, presenting any possible concessions as betrayal or web of  contradictions: it holds a strong mandate in foreign policy, but  lacks support for domestic issues.