Armenian premier`s policy could pose risks for modern-day Armenian  nationhood - report 

ArmInfo. If the Armenian government takes even more significant steps aimed at finally breaking off allied relations with Russia, this is unlikely to bring significant benefits even in the short term, but in the medium term  it may create strategic risks for Armenia's national security and the  existence of modern Armenian statehood. This is stated in the  analytical report of the Primakov National Research Institute of  World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of  Sciences "Armenia's Foreign Policy at a Crossroads: the Crisis of  Multi-Vectorality".

Its authors note that underestimating the likelihood of decisive  actions by Armenia's geopolitical opponents, as well as  overestimating the ability of the European Union and NATO to ensure  its security, combined with a complete disregard for the  socio-economic consequences of such decisions, could lead to the most  fatal consequences. "The choice in favor of further development based  on its own cultural and historical heritage and centuries-old  positive experience of relations with Russia can open up the prospect  of preserving sovereignty, international political subjectivity,  ensuring security and active participation in the construction of a  prosperous and secure Eurasia for the Republic of Armenia. Further  deterioration of relations with Armenia is not beneficial for Russia,  but maintaining the current situation of sabotage of the CSTO  activities in all areas and its further discrediting by a "frozen"  participant is also not in its interests.  The Armenian leadership  has begun to curtail relations with Russia and the CSTO in the  political and military-technical spheres and to comprehensively  increase partnership with the United States, the EU and NATO since  2022. In March 2023, RA Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that the  CSTO itself "willingly or involuntarily leaves the republic." Then  the Armenian government refused to hold the previously planned  exercises of the Organization in the country. Yerevan did not use the  Armenian quota for filling the post of Deputy Secretary General of  the CSTO and recalled the representative of the Republic of Armenia  to the organization. On November 24, 2023, Armenia did not take part  in the annual CSTO summit for the first time. Subsequently, the  Armenian leadership began to boycott all events of the Organization.  In February 2024, Pashinyan officially announced the "freezing" of  Armenia's membership in the CSTO. The condition for returning to the  organization was the requirement to unequivocally condemn the actions  of Azerbaijan as an "aggressor" during the border incidents that took  place in 2022-2023 and to fully fulfill its allied duty towards  Armenia as a "victim of aggression". This move by the Pashinyan  government was clearly designed to solve internal political and  propaganda tasks - Yerevan was well aware that, in addition to  Russia, the CSTO includes other states, each of which has its own  history of trade, economic and political ties with Azerbaijan. But  even under these conditions, the CSTO made a number of proposals on  measures to normalize the situation - sending a CSTO observer mission  to the border, mediation in negotiations between Yerevan and Baku.  However, these proposals were also rejected by the Armenian  leadership. Cooperation with Russia in the military-technical sphere  and in the field of security was also minimized," the report notes.

Its authors point out that the CSTO Charter does not provide for  "freezing" membership in the Organization at the will of one of the  member states. Termination of participation in events, boycott of the  work of the governing bodies and termination of funding of the CSTO  by Armenia violate the Charter of the Organization. Article 19  establishes the right of member states to withdraw from the  Organization and determines the following procedure for its  execution: official notification of withdrawal no later than 6 months  before the date of withdrawal, settlement of their obligations within  the Organization and approval of the termination of membership by the  CSTO Collective Security Council. Article 20 stipulates that in the  event of failure by a member state to comply with the provisions of  the CSTO Charter, decisions of the Council and decisions of other  bodies of the Organization adopted in their implementation, the  Council may decide to suspend its participation or exclude it from  the CSTO.

"The situation has remained uncertain for a long time: the Russian  leadership and CSTO representatives continue to view Armenia as a  full member in their official statements, but call on its leadership  to make its "final choice" about maintaining membership or leaving  the organization. In June 2024, RA Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan  announced the development of Armenia's relations with the United  States to the level of "strategic partnership." And on January 14,  2025, he and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken signed the Charter  on Strategic Partnership between the United States and Armenia. A  similar document has already been signed by the United States with  Georgia (in 2009) and with Ukraine (in 2021). Georgia concluded this  agreement in January 2009 at the peak of the confrontation between  Mikheil Saakashvili's administration and Russia, after the five-day  war of August 2008 provoked by official Tbilisi. Kyiv, which signed  such an agreement in 2021, has long been pursuing an open  anti-Russian policy. Armenia, however, formally remains an ally of  the Russian Federation - not only within the framework of the CSTO,  but also under the terms of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and  Mutual Assistance of August 29, 1997.  Meanwhile, the Charter does  not provide Yerevan with significant security guarantees and is  limited to promises to continue contacts, ensure the participation of  Armenian military personnel in educational programs, etc. The signing  of this document was primarily of political and ideological  significance for the outgoing US administration and the current  government of Armenia. The Donald Trump administration can formulate  new approaches in the South Caucasus and in relations with Russia.  Understanding this, the Pashinyan government chose to show the  population of Armenia that it had found new potential guarantors of  security in the United States and NATO instead of Russia and the  CSTO," the report says.

Meanwhile, the authors continued, the positions of the EU and NATO  countries on Armenian-Azerbaijani relations differ significantly,  which Yerevan does not like to mention. Nine EU and NATO member  states (Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Bulgaria,  Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Italy) express support for Baku's  policy and have signed documents on strategic partnership with  Azerbaijan. Only three EU states (France, Greece, Cyprus), which link  Azerbaijan's positions and actions with Turkey's interests,  facilitate the rearmament of the Armenian army and demonstrate their  readiness to politically support Armenia. However, it is obvious that  these states, in the event of a direct Armenian-Azerbaijani military  clash, will not be able to act as reliable guarantors of Armenia's  security. Their actions only convince Ankara and Baku of their  ability to resolve the "Armenian problem" by force if the situation  is favorable.  The preconditions for this may arise in the event of  an official withdrawal from the CSTO and the liquidation of the  Russian military presence in Armenia, in the coming years," the  document says.