Expert: Russia`s actions in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh and the  CSTO`s behavior  have affected  Moscow`s image and are now influencing the situation in Abkhazia 

ArmInfo.Russia's actions in Armenia and Nagorno- Karabakh, as well as the behavior of the CSTO  have had a significant impact on Moscow's image, particularly in the countries of the global South. These actions have also had consequences in Abkhazia today.

Karine Gevorgyan,  the renowned Russian scientist, Iranologist, and expert shares a similar view on  regional issues. During an interview on the channel "SOYUZNOE VECHE",  when asked about the future of  the so-called "Zangezur corridor" -  the route through the Syunik region of Armenia, which will connect  mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhichevan, Gevorgyan noted the  intriguing developments surrounding this route.

 "It is obvious that the Russian leadership is interested in land  projects within the framework of the ITC "North-South" and Azerbaijan  has met Moscow halfway on this issue. Moscow is also interested in  communications with Iran, as there are insufficient sea routes, and  the terminals and ports of Astrakhan do not yet support the  development of commodity exchange on a promising scale," the  political scientist believes. She says that Russia has insisted on  creating this extraterritorial corridor in Armenian Syunik, as openly  stated by Iran, although the Armenians do not admit it.  "However,  this route poses a threat to Iran, and is one of the stumbling blocks  in negotiations for a comprehensive agreement on strategic  partnership between Moscow and Tehran. This is understandable, as  Iran fears the strengthening of Turkish presence in the region. It is  clear that this will happen. Turkey has been present in Azerbaijan  since at least 2020, and it is no coincidence that the President of  the country, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stated: "We won in Karabakh." This  is not a legal, but a factual reality. It must also be noted that the  drift of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev from Erdogan is  noticeable," the expert emphasized. 

In this regard, she mentioned that Erdogan was even offended by this,  and expressed his displeasure through statements like: "We helped you  with Karabakh, so why aren't you supporting us enough on certain  issues." Gevorgyan views this a rather significant nuance, while  noting that despite strained relations with post-Soviet Azerbaijan,  Iran was still able to sign an agreement that communications - or  rather the "Zangezur corridor" will pass through the territory of  Iran, and it will not be extraterritorial.  "That is, there will be  no checkpoints there, because losing the border with Armenia will  complicate Iran's interactions with the outside world and with the  economic space of the EAEU. These are political and military threats  for Iran, it's essentially a yataghan at the throat. Therefore,  nothing personal or ethnic - this is simply a question of the  security of the IRI," the Iranologist is convinced. She recalled that  Tehran has repeatedly expresses resentment that Moscow does not fully  understand the security threats to Iran. "But, Iran still managed to  sign an agreement according to which communications will be  established through Iranian territory. So, this issue has been  resolved," Gevorgyan said.

Discussing strained relations between Armenia and the CSTO and the  challenges of maintaining unity within the organization, Gevorgyan  admitted that Armenian authorities are currently boycotting CSTO  events, despite the presence of Armenian ambassador at all meetings  of the Organization. "Quite curious, isn't it? Either take off your  cross or put on your underwear, as the famous joke goes," she added.  At the same time, the political scientist touched upon the  developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone since 2020,  including the 44-day war, the introduction of Russian peacekeepers  into Artsakh and the mass exodus of all Armenians from  Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. 

In this context, she noted that the outcome was followed by a  10-month total blockade of Nagorno- Karabakh, which is generally  similar to the current situation witnessed by the international  community in the Gaza Strip and Palestine. "It's essentially the same  scheme. Not only were the civilians of Artsakh starving, and even  dying of hunger, but the Russian peacekeepers themselves were also  affected, as their supplies came from Armenia. That is, they found  themselves in the same boat. It should be noted that Moscow could do  nothing to end this blockade, and the CSTO could do nothing. This is  a fact. Many people interpreted this as Moscow prioritizing  cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan for quick solutions to  operational tasks, even if it meant sacrificing Armenia's positions.  There are no arguments against such opinions, as it is unclear why  Moscow did nothing to end this blockade or properly address the  deaths of its peacekeepers in Artsakh? It is disturbing that these  events were attempted to be buried, but ultimately could not be. The  details of  what occurred and any apologies or compensation  Azerbaijan remain unknown, as there is no public information  available on these matters," the expert noted.

At the same time, Gevorgyan stressed that this is being seen and  noticed not only in Armenia, but also by Russian patriots who are  outraged by this circumstance. "The downing of a helicopter with  Russian military personnel on the territory of Armenia, the deaths of  peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh and much more have contributed to  the decline of the authority of the CSTO. I have already mentioned  that the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh has seriously impacted  Russia's reputation in Damascus, Tehran, Cairo, and New Delhi," she  said, pointing out that  India has now become the main supplier of  weapons to Armenia. 

According to her, this has made a serious impression on many  countries in the so-called global South and one should not be  surprised by the behavior of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who  first visited Moscow,  then Warsaw, and  finally Kyiv.  The political  scientist is confident that this is indeed an echo of the events  surrounding Artsakh, and she is not exaggerating the event. "New  Delhi has taken this seriously, as Turkey and Azerbaijan are  Pakistan's allies. Pakistan is a member of the Union of Turkic  States, even though little Turkic influence there, and there is the  Turan project, which poses a threat to both India and Iran,"  Gevorgyan noted. She also believes that Riyadh is concerned about  this, as Turkey's growing influence is disadvantageous to countries  in the Arab East for various reasons and is seen as a threat.  According to her, Russia has not paid much attention to the fact that  representatives of the UAE and Saudi Arabia are showing significant  interest in Armenia, including  the restoration of historical  cultural sites. She also mentioned that one of the advisors to the  UAE Ministry of Defense is an Armenian from Soviet Armenia,  indicating a high level of trust and secrecy.

At the same time, she added that there are certain nuances that  should be carefully considered  in the Nagorno-Karabakh story.  Gevorgyan believes that the current events in Abkhazia are a  continuation of the processes surrounding Artsakh, as trust in Moscow  has also diminished there. The political scientist highlighted that  the acting president of Abkhazia retracted the scandalous agreement  with Russia from parliament due to public outrage. "After the  well-known events around Nagorno-Karabakh, the Abkhazians are  expressing a desire to be handed over to Georgia, similar to the  aspirations of the people of  Karabakh ," the expert concluded.