Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement unlikely to be signed - expert 

ArmInfo. The signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan is unlikely due to the asymmetry in the negotiation process. This was stated in an interview with an ArmInfo correspondent by political scientist and director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan. In this regard, he  emphasized that peace is not just the absence of war and the signing  of a peace treaty is unlikely to significantly change the situation  or provide Armenia with greater security. 

The expert also believes that an escalation of the conflict in  Armenia is unlikely before the UN Climate Conference (COP29) in  Azerbaijan. "After COP29, I do not see any serious escalation in the  short term.  Minor incidents or a small escalation, especially since  spring, are possible. This can never be ruled out. But a large-scale  war is unlikely, since it involves the seizure of territories, and  Armenia is a recognized state, not Nagorno-Karabakh. It is difficult  to imagine that Azerbaijan would do this.  

But this does not mean that it is impossible at all," the political  scientist says. At the same time, Iskandaryan noted that the  concessions that Armenia is constantly making will not lead to the  signing of a peace treaty. "Azerbaijan does not need to sign a peace  treaty. But even if it is signed in some form, it will still be  something like a memorandum," he explained.

Speaking about Azerbaijan's demands regarding changes to the  Constitution, the political scientist noted that this is another way  of pressuring Armenia. According to him, the Azerbaijani authorities,  in a sense, do not care at all what wording is contained in the  Armenian Constitution. In this regard, Iskandaryan noted that  Azerbaijan uses several types of pressure on Armenia. Among them,  discursive pressure (for example, statements about Western  Azerbaijan, that Karabakh never existed), pressure through third  countries (including Russia and Western countries), as well as  pressure on the ground, for example, shooting. "These kinds of  demands are not an attempt to reach a consensus solution. 

There is actually no red line in the Azerbaijani demands. Therefore,  I do not believe that any concession can achieve greater security.  The idea that in order to achieve security, you need to be weaker,  not stronger, usually does not work. In order to be secure, you need  to have more resources, and not the other way around. It all started  with the fact that there should be a Lachin corridor, then it was  blocked, after which the Artsakh blockade began. Residents were  deported, and then they came to change the constitution. After that,  they will demand the return of refugees and the demilitarization of  the country. There is no specific line after which Azerbaijan will no  longer demand anything," the expert explained.

In this regard, the political scientist emphasized that the "era of  peace" cannot be declared by one of the parties. According to him,  when only one country declares peace, it is rather an attempt to  demonstrate to the outside world that it does not intend to continue  the conflict. However, as Iskandaryan notes, such statements come  only from Armenia, while Azerbaijan continues to accuse it of  revanchist sentiments and the purchase of weapons, claiming that the  Armenian side is constantly shelling them. "To achieve an era of  peace, the intentions of one party are not enough, given the obvious  fact that Armenia cannot pose a threat to Azerbaijan," Iskandaryan  explained. 

The political scientist then touched upon the relations between  Armenia and Russia. According to him, there is a certain pattern of  interaction between the countries, which has different directions in  different areas. In the economic sphere, as the expert notes,  cooperation is quite successful and even increasing. As Iskandaryan  explains, this is due to the specifics of the situation of the  Russian economy, which is under sanctions, which forces it to seek  new opportunities for interaction with the outside world. "If in the  economic sphere Armenia continues to maintain the same relations with  Russia as before, then in the security sphere this is not the case.  Armenia takes practically no part in the CSTO, while not leaving it.   There is a crisis in the public sphere of relations. Another thing is  that in recent weeks we have seen a decrease in the severity of  relations. That is, there is some dynamics here," the political  scientist added.

Touching upon the topic of opening roads, Iskandaryan noted that  globally open, recognized borders and roads theoretically have good  consequences. However, he emphasized that in the context of the  current situation, this is completely unimaginable. "Let's assume  that the crossroads of the world are now opened for Azerbaijan, and  they will be able to transport goods through Armenia. But will this  also apply to the Armenian side? Will an Armenian truck be able to  drive throughout Azerbaijan? Will a car with Armenian license plates  be able to move through Azerbaijani territory, as it happens through  Georgia? We must understand that Azerbaijan does not want  communications to be opened in general; it wants to open one specific  road - for its goods and people through the territory of Armenia to  communicate with the Nakhichevan Autonomous Region and further to  Turkey. 

This is what Armenia resists and what contradicts Armenian  sovereignty," Iskandaryan explains. At the same time, the political  scientist noted that negotiations on this topic were conducted in the  commissions of Armenia and Azerbaijan and reached the discussion of  technical details, but then everything was stopped.  According to  Iskandaryan, today there are only ultimatums that the Armenian side  cannot accept, so the issue remains hanging. "Today, opening the  roads is unlikely. It depends on the degree of pressure, on how it  will be implemented, as well as on the development of the political  situation in relations with external players in both Azerbaijan and  Armenia. But today, this is unlikely to happen," Iskandaryan summed  up.