Paris-Yerevan relations irritate Moscow and Baku 

ArmInfo. Relations between Paris and Yerevan have recently become an irritant for the two  states, at the very least. This is how Russian political scientist Sergei Markedonov commented on the visit of French Foreign Minister Stefan Sejourne to Armenia.

The expert stated that Sejourne will soon leave his post and become a  European Commissioner, but did not rule out that he will have to  return to the Armenian direction.

"Relations between Paris and Yerevan have recently become an irritant  for the two countries, at the very least. Moscow sees them as an  attempt by France to compensate for its failures in Africa by  increasing its influence in the post-Soviet space. Not only in  Armenia, by the way. After Yerevan, the second stop on Mr.   Sejourne's "farewell tour" is Chisinau. In addition, France, along  with the EU, the US and NATO, is seen as the most active  representative of the "political West" in promoting the plan for an  Armenian-Azerbaijani peace settlement aimed at minimizing Russia's  influence in the Transcaucasus.

In Baku, any attempts by Yerevan to build some kind of  "alliance-refuge" (whether with Moscow, Paris, or Tehran) are  interpreted as attempts (even if latent), if not of  military-political revenge, then of correcting the status quo that is  advantageous for Azerbaijan," Markedonov believes.

However, he is sure that Sejourne's visit should not be viewed  exclusively in the context of Moscow and Baku's geopolitical phobias  (although there are quite rational grounds for such).

"Mr. the outgoing minister and future European Commissioner arrived  in Yerevan against the backdrop of the recently launched campaign to  collect votes in support of Armenia's membership in the European  Union. The topic is not new. In June, the Armenian parliament held  hearings on the advisability of holding a referendum on the  republic's application to join the "united Europe." The initiators of  this action were representatives of the so-called "Platforms of  Democratic Forces" (Arman Babajanyan, Aram Sargsyan, Tigran  Khzmalyan). Junior partners of Prime Minister Pashinyan, who publicly  voice many of his doubts and secret thoughts, for which the time has  not yet come. The head of the Cabinet himself stated on July 1 that  holding a referendum in Armenia on EU membership would raise  questions that have no answers.  Thus, the maximum program was  postponed.

But on the second day of Sejourne's stay in Yerevan, the minimum  program was launched - a campaign to collect signatures for Armenia's  membership in the EU. Artak Zeynalyan (who held the post of Minister  of Justice for some time) became its plenipotentiary representative.  And if the collectors pass the 50,000 signature level by November 14  (a difficult, but not at all zero task), then the initiative will be  submitted to the National Assembly of the Republic. If the people's  representatives do not approve the bill, then a new collection of  signatures will begin to submit the initiative to a national  referendum. This will require 300,000 signatures. But they can also  support it!", the political scientist added.

According to the expert, de facto it turned out that the high-ranking  visitor, by his appearance in Yerevan, approved the campaign to  promote the European initiative.

At the same time, he does not rule out that the campaign will receive  some support and go further. "In any case, what the head of the  Armenian MFA Ararat Mirzoyan once spoke about in a resonant interview  for "TRT World" has already happened. The topic of European  integration has been introduced into the official political discourse  of the republic. Not as a marginal topic, but one of the key issues,"  Markedonov stated.

At the same time, the expert is sure that the promotion of the  European agenda and its de jure consolidation will automatically  cause a harsh reaction from Moscow, and possibly Baku, but without  any particular objections from Ankara. 

"A new question is how far and where such harshness will lead. Iran  is interested in Armenia as a partner, but it will not help its  "Europeanization". And the burning Middle East will not allow the use  of the entire arsenal of forces and means in the Caucasus direction.  Will the EU help? The question is rhetorical!  Although Monsieur  Sejourne tried to give his answer to it, having told during his visit  to Yerevan about Russia as an obstacle on Armenia's path to  democracy. Creating problems for the Russian Federation in the  Caucasus not for the sake of Armenian national interests, but  instrumentally for the sake of strengthening the "political West" in  the region - this is the most obvious European perspective today. And  not only for the Armenian establishment, but for all its citizens!"  Markedonov believes.