Wednesday, March 13 2024 11:48

ArmInfo.The 'Crossroads of Peace' initiative proposed by the Armenian authorities is a project divorced from reality, since any desire to achieve peace and implement it ''on earth'' must be the result of the manifestation of the will of all participants in the conflict, both direct and indirect. About this in a conversation with the correspondent, Doctor of Political Sciences Vahe Davtyan told ArmInfo.

"Today we see the opposite picture, when, in parallel with the  pacifist slogans heard from Yerevan, Baku is developing militaristic  rhetoric at the highest level, demonstrating its readiness to solve  problems with Armenia, including transport, through the use of force.  This is firstly. Secondly, Baku and Ankara have an extremely  fragmented approach to unblocking communications in the region, by  which they mainly understand the establishment of transport links  along the Ordubad-Meghri-Horadiz line, providing access to the  Armenian railway network through Yeraskh. As we see, we are talking  about a corridor, in the understanding of the Turkish-Azerbaijani  tandem - extraterritorial. Finally, thirdly, it is important to  evaluate the logistics of the ''Crossroads of Peace''. The project  includes a road from Sotok to Yeraskh, which, if there is a road  through Meghri, can create strategic risks for the south of Armenia.  Remember the Danzig, or Polish corridor in the interval between the  two world wars and try to extrapolate it to our realities," he said.

He expressed doubts about the feasibility of this project, since  Ankara and Baku are aimed at opening communications only through the  south of Armenia. As for other, more promising areas from an economic  point of view, as the professor noted, after the war of 2020 they are  practically not being considered. Thus, the issue of launching a  railway connection along the Ijevan-Gazakh line, which in Soviet  times was the shortest route through the north-east of Armenia to  Azerbaijan and further along the Baku-Derbend line to Russia, is not  addressed. Turkish official rhetoric also lacks theses about the  Kars-Gyumri railway, the unblocking of which was discussed during the  period of "football diplomacy".

"The reason for the latter is clear: by implementing the  Kars-Igdir-Nakhijevan railway project, Ankara aims to provide access  to Azerbaijan through the pushing "Zangezur corridor". Turkey now has  no practical need for a separate line with Armenia. Even all attempts  by Yerevan through repairs work on the Margara border bridge shows a  focus on opening communications. Ankara reacts by limiting its  airspace for Armenian airlines," the political scientist emphasized.

He added that the "Zangezur corridor" is the only thing that Ankara  and Baku understand today by "unblocking communications". By  providing land communication between themselves via the Baku-  Tbilisi-Kars railway, as well as through Iranian infrastructure,  Ankara and Baku are aimed at forming an extraterritorial corridor  through the south of Armenia, primarily with the aim of developing  military- strategic cooperation, and more specifically, the  unhindered implementation of military transportation for the  militarization of Nakhijevan with the formation of a full-fledged  Turkish military base there - a potential springboard against Iran.  Realizing this, Iran is doing its best to prevent the formation of  the "Zangezur Corridor", offering the parties the so-called ''Araks  Corridor'' - almost the same logistics, only along the Iranian bank  of the Araks River. "In parallel with this, Tehran has repeatedly  expressed the advisability of developing the transport infrastructure  of Armenia along the North-South line.

For this purpose, the concept of the "Caucasian Corridor" was  developed, designed to provide a multimodal connection between the  Persian Gulf and the Black Sea. In general, it is important to  understand that today Ankara and Baku have a relatively favorable  situation for advancing their transport claims. Because of the war  between Israel and Hamas, the Middle East Corridor project, which  should connect India with the south of Europe through the UAE and  Israel, bypassing Turkey, has actually been frozen (remember  Erdogan's statement that not a single major transport infrastructure  in this macro-region can bypass Turkey). In these conditions, the  West needs to diversify its routes to the Caspian Sea and further to  Central Asia. The so-called ''Zangezur corridor''. Why not mentioned  Baku-Tbilisi-Kars? Yes, because this railway is integrated into the  Chinese mega-project "Belt and Road". Also, given the energy problems  in Europe, Ankara and Baku periodically declare their readiness to  build a gas pipeline through the Zangezur Corridor, as well as a  power transmission line to the west. In a word, diplomatic maneuvers  are quite interesting, and responding to them with a "Crossroads of  Peace" is at least infantile," the political scientist concluded.

At the end of October 2023, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia  Nikol Pashinyan in Tbilisi at an international forum for the first  time presented the "Crossroads of Peace" project, which, in fact, is  the Armenian version of the project to unblock communications in the  region after the 44-day war in Artsakh.  This is one of the  components of the process of establishing lasting peace in the South  Caucasus, and if implemented, it could change the status of Armenia,  helping it emerge from isolation and become a logistics hub in the  region. This was an attempt by Armenia, on the one hand, to counter  Azerbaijan's accusations against the Armenian side of preventing the  unblocking of communication channels, and on the other hand, to  finally formulate its own agenda in a changing region, defending its  importance in the context of the implementation of large  international logistics projects.

At the same time, taking into account the specific approach of  Azerbaijan and Turkey to the launch of logistics and economic  communications through the territory of Armenia, which presuppose the  presence of extraterritorial parameters, official Yerevan also  presented the principles of using regional infrastructure in one  package. There are only four of them, but the first two are vital for  Armenia, concerning the status of these communications and control  over them. According to Armenia, "all infrastructure, including  roads, railways and air routes, pipelines, cables, power lines must  function within the framework of the sovereignty and jurisdiction of  the countries through whose territory they pass." And secondly, Prime  Minister Pashinyan, speaking in Tbilisi, emphasized that each country  "through its state institutions exercises border and customs control,  and also ensures the security of infrastructures, including the  passage of goods, vehicles and people through them." This is  especially important against the backdrop of recently intensified  discussions on the issue of control over the railway and roads that  will be built from Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan through the territory of  Armenia. Of course, they did not arise out of nowhere, but stem from  paragraph 9 of the tripartite statement of November 9, 2020.  According to this statement, all economic and transport connections  in the region must be unblocked, and Armenia will guarantee "the  security of transport communications from Azerbaijan to Nakhijevan,  which must be under the control of the Border Service of the FSB of  Russia."