Russian expert: Astana and Baku have their own mutual plans

ArmInfo.Baku and Astana set out to prove in practice the correctness of the "middle power" hypothesis. This was stated by Russian political scientist Sergei Markedonov, referring to the visit of the President of Kazakhstan Kasym-Jomart Tokayev to Azerbaijan.  The expert stated that Tokayev began his two-day visit to Baku. In this regard, he noted that Azerbaijani- Kazakh relations are traditionally considered as an embodiment of pragmatism.

"Kazakhstan is a member of the EAEU and the CSTO, but at the same  time considers its relations with Azerbaijan, which distances itself  from any integration formats, as one of its priorities. Both  yesterday and today, many commentators will say all the right words  about the partnership between Baku and Astana in energy and  transport-logistics sector. And indeed, from 2020 to date, bilateral  trade turnover has increased fivefold (from 109 to 529 million US  dollars). But not just with one economy," noted Markedonov, who drew  attention to Tokayev's interesting interview with the Azerbaijani  APA, given on the eve of a visit to Baku.

"It contains tons, kilometers, and cubic meters. But the most  important thing in the interview is the points of foreign policy  identification. However, is it only foreign policy," asked the  political scientist.

"Mr. Tokayev possesses the ability to formulate bright and colorful  metaphors. In a pre-visit interview, he 'plays on' Nauriz's ideology.  "Nauryz means a new day, renewal. It is symbolic that today processes  of renewal and revival are underway not only between Kazakhstan and  Azerbaijan, but also throughout the Turkic world, we have entered a  new era of our cooperation," states Tokayev. And it is not for  nothing that he takes his visit to Baku in 2022. So, a request for  novelty! By building for the domestic audience a certain distance  between himself and the first Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev,  Tokayev continues this line in the international arena. And it is no  coincidence that he considers his visit to Baku in 2022 as a certain  point in the development of a new era in Azerbaijani-Kazakh  relations. So, as for novelty! By building a certain distance between  himself and the first Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev for the  domestic audience, Tokayev continues this line in the international  arena. He arrived in 2022, and a new era, effective and productive,  began," the Russian expert believes.

According to him, the same connection between internal and external  factors is present in the assessment of the situation in  Nagorno-Karabakh. "Tokayev   lavished praise on  the Azerbaijani  leadership, which is busy with the "restoration" of the region.  Moreover, he announces the construction in Fuzuli (Varanda-Armenia)  of the Kurmangazy Children's Creativity Center with Kazakh funds.  Again, the consistent position of the leadership of Kazakhstan is  clear (By the way, Tokayev here definitely continues to follow  Nazarbayev's line) in supporting the territorial integrity of all CIS  countries. This pathos may not be shared, but understanding the  political logic is important and necessary," Markedonov believes.  At  the same time, according to him, in Tokayev's program interview a lot  was said about Turkic solidarity and brotherhood with Azerbaijan, and  only briefly about peace between Yerevan and Baku, which corresponds  to Kazakh interests.

"But, perhaps, the most important thing is that both the interview  and the dialogue between Aliyev and Tokayev are conducted as if there  is no "Cold War 2.0". "Turkish brotherhood", Caspian logistics,  energy, everything is structured as if the Northern Military District  of Ukraine and the deepening confrontation between Russia and the  West are something far away. In the Azerbaijani-Kazakh conversation,  this does not look like the foreground or the proscenium. Between the  lines you can read that Astana and Baku have their own mutual plans.  And if someone likes it, very good, and if not, then go mind your own  business," the political scientist added.

In conclusion, Markedonov recalled that Canadian researcher John  Holmes coined the concept of a "middle power." It assumes economic  importance (for example, due to the possession of significant natural  and energy resources), a strategically advantageous geographical  location, and an interest in a normal partnership with the country of  X leading global actors.

""It seems that Baku and Astana set out to prove in practice the  correctness of this hypothesis. Relying on their own interests,  selfishness, harsh realism and pragmatics are the distinctive  features of this style.  Tactics (and strategy) are problematic for  both partners and opponents. There are also elements of risk in it.   But whoever doesn't take risks, as you know..." summed up the Russian  expert.