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 Wednesday, February 28 2024 13:38
Alexandr Avanesov

Armenia is consistently, step by step, moving towards leaving CSTO -  political analyst

Armenia is consistently, step by step, moving towards leaving CSTO -  political analyst

ArmInfo. The Armenian authorities are consistently, step by step, leading the country to  withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Armenian political analyst Arman Ghukasyan told ArmInfo.

According to him, the statement of the head of government about  freezing relations with the Organizations should not be considered  sensational, since what was announced was something that everyone  knew about.  Armenia does not take part in events within the CSTO.  "In the Organization's charter there is no such thing as  participation or freezing of participation, but de facto the  country's authorities and Nikol Pashinyan personally are leading the  country to withdraw from it," the expert noted.

He emphasized that such behavior is fraught with serious risks for  Armenia. With the current turbulent developments, including against  the backdrop of the situation in the South Caucasus, without an  alternative, either in the form of NATO or another security system,  this may lead to the new challenges. The political scientist  mentioned that there are just some processes going on in the western  direction, the results of which are still vague and unclear.  Naturally, these developments carry very great dangers and  challenges, since the intentions of neighboring states laying claim  to the sovereign territory of Armenia are obvious . "If you have no  alternative, how can you take such risky and dangerous steps,"  Ghukasyan noted.

He, however, noted that the actions of the Armenian authorities  clearly demonstrate the policy of the country's withdrawal from the  CSTO, and non-participation in CSTO events is only the first step in  this direction. "It all leads to that. The authorities see security  guarantees in the West, and based on the current policy of official  Yerevan, It all leads exactly to that. But from the West, no one has  given clear and precise guarantees of ensuring the security of the  Armenian state," the expert emphasized.

Ghukasyan considered it quite possible to link the issue of freezing  relations with the CSTO with the process of developing a new  Constitution of the Republic of Armenia, in which the authorities  will try to formulate a provision on the state's non-aligned status.  But you shouldn't completely rely on such developments. It is much  more important to pay attention to the sequence of steps taken by  official Yerevan. "Whether it will  be formulated or not,  is just  one side of the coin; the processes that are taking place are much  more important: this is the visit of the French Minister of Defense  to Armenia, and the supply of French weapons, and the visits of  high-ranking German delegations, etc., it's all a continuation of one  chain," the expert emphasized.

Answering the question about the possibility of freezing the  relations of the Eurasian Economic Union countries with Armenia,  Ghukasyan expressed doubts about such developments.  He emphasized  that economic interests often prevail over all other issues,  including political ones. This can be seen in the example of other  countries, for example Georgia, which has practically zero political  relations with Russia, which does not prevent the active development  of Russian-Georgian economic cooperation. At one time, Moldova did  the same, but until Chisinau, under pressure and promises from the  West, completely severed all ties with the CIS, and Russia, in  particular. A severance of relations with the EAEU could lead to  unpredictable, much greater damage for Armenia, especially given the  lack of an alternative. This is well understood in Yerevan.

"We all see that Pashinyan does not participate in CSTO events, but  he is present at meetings of the Supreme and Intergovernmental  Councils of the EAEU, and even took over the chairmanship of this  body.  The Russian Federation itself is interested in that,  especially in the current conditions of sanctions. Through Armenia,  Russia has, albeit small, some connections with European countries,  from where it receives a number of goods through parallel imports,"  the expert emphasized, pointing to the problems of supplying Armenian  goods to the European market, both from a logistics point of view,  which leads to additional costs, and the competitiveness of these  goods in Europe, which do not yet meet European standards. "In short,  at this stage, Armenia has no other option than the Russian market,"  the expert stated.

Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, in an interview with  France24 TV channel, stated that the collective security agreement  regarding Armenia was not implemented, and the republic froze its  participation in the CSTO.

The CSTO Secretariat stated that it had not received relevant  notifications from Yerevan.  The Russian Foreign Ministry said it was  waiting for clarification from Armenia. The Russian department claims  that reducing Armenia's participation in CSTO events does not meet  the interests of the Armenian people.

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is confident that the CSTO  "will not collapse" without Armenia. 

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