Wednesday, January 10 2024 11:48

ArmInfo. The risk of renewed hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2024 remains very high,  expert in Azerbaijani studies Tatevik Hayrapetyan told ArmInfo as she voiced her opinion on a possible peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan this year. 

According to the expert, Baku, while stalling for time, is not interested in concluding an agreement, especially since the situation "on the ground" is constantly changing. And this, as Hayrapetyan  emphasized, allows Azerbaijan to put forward new conditions to  Armenia. In fact, she continued, the document will be intended to  document the results of the military aggression committed by Baku  against Armenia and Artsakh. "In this context, there is no need to  talk about peace. There has never been a case in history in which the  winner would limit himself to the results achieved during military  aggression; he will demand more and more," said Hayrapetyan.

The expert noted that in the current situation, Yerevan is unable to  achieve even the minimum conditions related to territorial integrity  and inviolability of borders. Evidence of this is the statements of  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who declared Armenia "Western  Azerbaijan." "They not only make statements of this kind, but are  also preparing for possible new military actions, and there are  practically no trends indicating Baku's desire for peace. Azerbaijan  is very good at using the so-called peace process in its interests,  trying to legitimize the results their aggressive actions,"  Hayrapetyan emphasized.

Speaking about Baku's demands for the creation of the so-called  "Zangezur Corridor", the expert pointed out the complexity of the  issue from the point of view of regional and geopolitical  developments. She noted that Azerbaijan, in its desire to solve this  problem by military means, did not take these steps solely out of  fears caused by a possible reaction from Iran. "Tehran has repeatedly  issued warnings to Baku about this.  Iran even offered its territory  to create an alternative corridor through its territory. Moreover,  this road will operate in accordance with international standards and  appropriate checks of cargo at the border.

Azerbaijan does not risk putting forward any conditions to the  Islamic State to ensure unhindered movement along this corridor,  which cannot be said in the case of Yerevan. I believe that Baku will  try to make maximum use of this clause on the so-called corridor in  the peace treaty. The Armenian authorities are ready to make any  concessions. At least, so far there have been no conditions put  forward by the Armenian side that Azerbaijan would agree to. Even in  the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, despite numerous assurances from  officials of our country to ensure the safety of its residents, this  was not done, which was greatly facilitated by statements from  Yerevan about lowering the bar for the status of Artsakh, which  Azerbaijan did not fail to take advantage of," noted the expert.

"The negotiation process itself indicates that there is a danger of a  resumption of hostilities. If we keep in mind that Prime Minister of  the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan recognized many vital  territories of Armenia as part of the territory of Azerbaijan, then  we should expect that Baku will go all the way in order to achieve  its goal, and this opportunity was opened for him by the head of the  Armenian government himself, without receiving absolutely nothing for  the Republic of Armenia. In reality, the risk of a resumption of  hostilities is indeed very large. To prevent such a development of  events, it is necessary to carry out very smart diplomatic work in  order to prevent the Karabakh scenario, which occurred, among other  things, thanks to some international consensus. And this suggests  that the Armenian side is not conducting any diplomatic work in order  to prevent this consensus," concluded Hayrapetyan.