Wednesday, December 27 2023 11:19

ArmInfo. India's robust relationship with Armenia may be put on hold by the shift in the  Caucasus' balance of power, reads an article by The National  Interest. 

Below is the article: 

When it comes to Indian geopolitical maneuvers, the global strategic  community feels that India punches much below its weight, mostly  confined to South Asia. Until recently, India's strategic calculus  was primarily limited to Pakistan, followed by China. Its outreach to  the Western world was largely economic and cultural, barring a minor  strategic component dwelling upon defense deals. However, after the  Chinese incursions in Doklam and Galwan worsened the India-China  relationship and the involvement of extra- regional actors like  Turkey in the Kashmir conflict, India's foreign policy vision,  approach, and strategic calculus are expanding beyond South Asia.  Some of its manifestations include India's interest in the Indo-  Pacific, global strategic connectivity projects like IMEC, an upsurge  in India-Greece bilateral ties, and New Delhi's enthusiastic  showmanship during its G20 presidency."

In the last three years, India has emerged as a major weapons  supplier to Armenia. These big-ticket defense deals include the sale  of Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, a $40 million contract of  SWATHI weapon- locating radars, ammunition anti-tank missiles, and  155 mm artillery guns. The author's interlocutors in India's Ministry  of External Affairs informed that Armenia is interested in more  defense deals, including drones and counter-drone systems, loitering  munitions, and mid-range surface-to-air missiles. In October 2022,  Armenia's defense minister, Suren Papikyan, visited the New Delhi  defense expo and met his Indian counterpart, Rajnath Singh. 

In Sept 2022, both countries signed memoranda of understanding (MOUs)  in culture, digital infrastructure, and renewable energy to promote  business ties at the India-Armenia Conference 2022 in Bengaluru. The  delegates explored the trade and investment potential in  pharmaceuticals, agriculture, information technology, cinema, and  tourism. Additionally, one can witness an uptick in think tank-level  cooperation between India and Armenia. Most recently, the author  represented the Usanas Foundation at the Yerevan Dialogue Series  organized by the Armenian Prime Minister's Office in collaboration  with Armenia's top- level think tank, Applied Policy Research  Institute (APRI). APRI will also organize the next dialogue series  with the Observer Research Foundation, another Indian think tank, and  the Raisina Dialogue organizer in partnership with the Ministry of  External Affairs.

All these developments rest on the solid bedrock of robust cultural  and historical ties between the two countries that have existed for  centuries. The Armenian business community has lived in India for  over four centuries. Kolkata is home to centuries-old Armenian  churches. The first draft of a constitution for the Armenian nation  was drawn up in Chennai.

Strategic Connectivity and Geopolitics

Until the 2020 war, India more or less had a clear stand, backing  Armenia against Azerbaijan's territorial aggression. Turkey and  Pakistan's support of Azerbaijan made it all the more essential for  India to support Armenia. In 2017, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan  signed a trilateral ministers' agreement to boost defense and  strategic ties. Notably, Azerbaijan has declared its support for  Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, whereas Armenia supports India.  Turkey-Pakistan relations extend back to 1947. After India abrogated  Kashmir's special status in 2019, Turkey emerged as a diehard  proponent of Pakistan's position against India. Under Erdogan's  Islamist leadership and Pan-Turkic ambitions, Ankara's interest and  support of Pakistan strengthened, and anti-India diatribes have  become vitriolic. More recently, the author's interlocutors have  suggested that Erdogan's private paramilitary force, SADAT, may be  active in sending highly trained mercenaries to Kashmir.

In addition to counter-balance Turkey and Pakistan, India also looks  at Armenia as a nodal point to expand its strategic and economic  outreach to the South Caucasus. Delhi's most critical interests in  this region lie in the strategic connectivity projects. India's  interest in the INSTC (International North-South Corridor), of which  Armenia is a part, is firmly rooted in its quest for land  connectivity to Eurasia, Central Asia, and Europe through the Iranian  plateau, otherwise blocked by Pakistan and Afghanistan. With this  intent, India aims to extend INSTC to Armenia, connecting Chahbahar  port in South East Iran to European and Eurasian markets. India and  Iran have two options- railway lines connecting North Western Iran to  Russia or the Black Sea through Armenia's Syunik province or via the  Caspian Coast through Azerbaijan. Armenia is a natural choice for  India because of Azerbaijan's proximity to Pakistan and Turkey.  Armenia is also keenly interested in INSTC. Yerevan announced an  alternate road to Iran in May 2021 to connect Iranian ports to  Georgian ports via Armenia. During the Indian foreign minister's 2021  visit, Armenia also proposed a scheme allowing the transportation of  Indian products to Russia and the Black Sea via Armenia. All these  initiatives bring the INSTC closer to reality. 

Given the abovementioned developments, it is reasonable to conclude  that both countries are moving towards a robust strategic  partnership. However, India's relative silence after the fall of  Nagarno-Karabakh in 2023 indicates a moderate decline in New Delhi's  enthusiasm for the relationship and a sense of guarded optimism  bordering on skepticism. Perhaps, after Azerbaijan cemented its  control over Nagarno-Karabakh, India now feels insecure about its  investments and plans for strategic connectivity projects in this  region.  India may reconsider its abovementioned preference for the  Syunik transit route because of the Zanzegur region that falls within  it. Baku has made claims to the Zanzegur corridor as it provides  unimpeded access to its exclave of Nakchivan. Given the revisionist  intent of Azerbaijan, these threats originating from Baku can not be  underestimated. Hence, the prevailing instability and volatile  security situation may dampen India's enthusiasm for a transit route  through Syunik.

Nevertheless, India faces a tough choice. India is deeply invested in  the Chahbahar project and eyes INSTC as a critical connectivity  project to obtain overland routes to Europe. Despite the hindrances  from sanctions against Iran and Russia and major differences over the  arbitration issues with Iran, India has finalized a ten- year  contract with Iran for the use of Chahbahar port. 

India's West Asia expert and former envoy to many Middle Eastern  countries, Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, said in a telephone interview  that after the Ukraine war, Russians have become very serious about  the rapid execution of INSTC to gain access to Chahbahar through the  Indian Ocean, to counter the European sanctions. India does not want  to miss this opportunity. He further said that if India shows a lack  of interest, China will likely occupy that space as it already has  strong ties with Russia. India's dependence is further accentuated by  the declining prospects of the IMEC (India-Middle East Europe  Corridor) after the Israel-Hamas war. 

Hence, whether these vulnerabilities will compel India to explore the  Azerbaijan route for INSTC against the backdrop of the  Turkey-Pakistan-Azerbaijan alliance remains a million-dollar  question. 

In addition to the abovementioned factors, the increasing involvement  of global powers in the South Caucasus can also impede the  transformation of the India-Armenia relationship into a strategic  partnership.  After Russia's lukewarm response to the war with  Azerbaijan, there is a marked Armenian shift toward the United  States, which is making Moscow uncomfortable. In the recent  Russia-Ukraine war, India had to face tremendous pressure from the  Western powers to abandon Russia. Given its aversion to alliances,  New Delhi would avoid getting caught in another cold war front  between the United States and Russia. Also, India's strong ties with  Israel, Iran's arch-enemy, and Iran's with China, India's arch-enemy,  will make it increasingly challenging for India to continue and  further its involvement in Russia-Iran-led INSTC. The worst-case  scenario for India will be the passage of INSTC through Azerbaijan.  Hence, it can be argued that in the prevailing uncertainty and  instability in the South Caucasus, India will prefer to move ahead on  a bilateral trajectory with Armenia, with a particular focus on  defense deals and economic ties.