Saturday, November 18 2023 13:48

ArmInfo.The upcoming US presidential election will have both direct and indirect impact on  the world and on Armenia, no matter who is elected to the position of President of the United States, believes expert in American studies Suren Sargsyan. 

Analyzing the impact of the results of the upcoming November 2024  presidential elections in the United States on American foreign  policy in general, and on Armenia in particular, the expert stated  that if the American voter votes for the direction of solving  internal problems, then the outside world naturally looks at a  possible change in the external US policies and review of priorities.

The Americanist expressed the belief that the main race will be  between the current president, Democrat Joseph Biden, and the former  president, Republican Donald Trump.

"At the same time, it can also be argued that these elections will be  characterized by a factor of unpredictability. It will be very  noticeable, given the age of the two main candidates (Biden is 80  years old and Trump is 77 years old), about 4 dozen charges against  Trump and the prospect of imprisonment , the impeachment initiated  against Biden, as well as domestic and foreign policy processes,"  Sargsyan continued.

According to him, naturally, the foreign policy course will depend on  who wins and who will lead the majority in the US Congress.

Sargsyan is convinced that if Biden is re-elected, US foreign policy  will not undergo significant changes, given the priorities that  dominate the agenda today. "However, if the balance of power in  Congress is upset, tangible changes are possible, including in the  Ukrainian direction, in the Israeli direction, in relations with  allies, etc. Let's not forget that there are serious disagreements  among Republicans regarding the provision of assistance to Ukraine,"  noted the expert.

According to him, regardless of when the war in Ukraine ends, Biden  will continue the sanctions policy against Russia.

"It is not difficult to guess to what extent the extreme tensions  between Russia and the West will affect the security and economic  situation of Armenia. Naturally, it would be in Armenia's interests  not to be the focus of this confrontation, having the opportunity to  work on the common interests of geopolitical centers, and not on  contradictions.

In addition, in the long term, anti-Russian sanctions could have a  serious impact on Armenia, given its dependence on Russian energy  resources, Armenia's membership in the EAEU and CSTO, and the  interconnectedness of economies with many thousands of threads. If  today Armenia is able to receive certain dividends from financial  flows bypassing Russia, then it is not a fact that this will be able  to continue for a long time, given the periodic warnings coming from  Washington," the expert states. 

In his opinion, if Trump returns to Washington, there may be a  significant reduction in the Ukrainian factor, which will bring a  certain detente to Russian-American relations, and some sanctions may  even be lifted.

He also believes that in parallel with some softening of his policy  towards Russia, Trump will take a tougher position towards Iran,  forming, relatively speaking, an "Israel first" policy in the Middle  East, with all the ensuing consequences.

"Naturally, any actions against Iran, whether through military or  economic sanctions, cannot be in the interests of Armenia. Of course,  it would be more beneficial for Armenia, both from an economic and  security point of view, if US-Iran relations "were settled and the  sanctions were revised, but such a prospect seems vague.  Consequently, Armenia must be able to correctly navigate global  processes and try to minimize expected challenges by preparing for  them in advance," Mr Sargsyan concludes.