ArmInfo.The Armenian authorities' initiative aimed at unblocking regional transport links is nothing but a good intention that is most likely to remain on paper, political expert Benjamin Matevosyan told ArmInfo as he commented on Armenian Premier Nikol Pashinyan's recent initiative Crossroads of Peace at the Siko Road forum in Tbilisi, Georgia.
On October 26, speaking in the capital of Georgia, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan said that the government of the republic has developed and presents the "Crossroads of the World" project as an important part of the peace agenda. The key meaning of this project is the development of communications between Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran through the repair, construction and operation of roads, railways, pipelines, cables, power lines. "The railways passing through the south and north of Armenia have not been functioning at the regional level for thirty years, numerous highways connecting the East and West are not functioning, while the resumption of operation of these roads would be short and efficient, both railway and road route connecting the Caspian Sea with the Mediterranean. In the same way, these railway and road communications can become an effective way to connect the Persian Gulf with the Black Sea, including with Georgian ports. This project will bring great benefits to all countries in our region, and I want to draw the attention of governments and private investors to this opportunity," Armenia's premier said.
In this regard, the political scientist raises the question of why Turkey and Azerbaijan should take part in the development of Armenia. He expressed confidence that both Ankara and Baku will in every possible way hinder the implementation of the initiative. The presence of some roads in the country will never be critical for Turkey and Azerbaijan. "All those maps that were presented in Tbilisi, according to which Armenia will have exits in four directions, will remain only on paper," Matevosyan noted, recalling in this regard the statement of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk on the redirection of the railway from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan through the territory of Iran, bypassing Armenia. In particular, Overchuk stated that the Syunik section is not considered in the context of the North-South ITC due to the lack of a final position of Yerevan.
Matevosyan also recalled the previous initiatives of the Armenian authorities, for the implementation of which no real steps were taken. The expert, in particular, pointed to the "Armenia -2050" program, which was proposed before the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020: it provided for bringing the country's population to 5 million people by 2050, creating 1.5 million new workers places, a 20-fold increase in GDP, etc., but, as history itself shows, no action was taken in this direction. A similar fate will await the Crossroads of the World project, Matevosyan is sure.
In turn, political scientist Sergei Melkonyan urged not to create illusions about the project. "Neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan are interested in turning Armenia into a communications crossroads. They have their own agenda, according to which Nakhijevan will become this crossroads. At the same time, the most important section of the road will stretch from Nakhijevan to Turkey, the political scientist is sure. "Thus, the Crossroads of the World will not become a window to the world, but a window to Turkey," Melkonyan emphasized.
It should be noted that Forbes magazine also returned to the topic, raising the question of the possibility of economic cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The article, authored by regional specialist Kirill Krivosheev, recalls that Baku and Yerevan have recently made opposing statements about the economic future of the region. "Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, visiting Tbilisi, presented an optimistic project "Crossroads of the World", which involves the development of transport communications with all neighbors: Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey. At the same time, Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev said that the corridor through the Armenian territory of Baku is no longer needed.
Regional specialist Kirill Krivosheev is convinced that in this way Yerevan is being offered two scenarios - codependency or suffocation. Its author points out the unexpected nature of the speech of the Armenian prime minister in Tbilisi. A map of Armenia was shown on the large screen, from which four arrows emanated - to the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf. Pashinyan also proposed the principles on which transit would be carried out, and they succinctly reflected all Yerevan's concerns about this matter. The first and main condition is that "all infrastructure, including roads, railways, airways, pipelines, cables, power lines, operate under the sovereignty and jurisdiction of the countries through which they pass." Secondly, "each country carries out border and customs control on its territory through its government agencies, and also ensures the security of infrastructure, including the safety of goods, vehicles and people." It is also noted that "all countries use each other's infrastructure on the basis of equality and reciprocity."
The picture was complemented by the favorable assumption of the Deputy Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures of Armenia Hakob Vardanyan that in the future Armenia could buy Azerbaijani gas and even serve as a transit point for its supplies to Europe. All this sounds great, but it could only work if Armenia was perceived by Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey as an equal partner. However, this is not at all true. All three players have the opportunity to push for better conditions for themselves, which means they will try to do so. At the same time, Yerevan's idea of getting equally comfortable access to four seas and two oceans is needed only by itself.
Of course, the author of the article in Forbes continues, no one expects close cooperation between the countries, but there is hope that they will at least allow each other transit through their territories. The Azerbaijanis need access to Nakhichevan and Turkey - and the easiest way to get there is by restoring the Soviet railway through Armenia, but the Armenians need another access to Russia, and they cannot get it except through Azerbaijan. True, in this matter, as elsewhere, the rule of the strong worked and instead of unblocking all communications, which was discussed initially, only one infrastructure project was de facto discussed - the so-called Zangezur corridor from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan through Armenia. Literally everything about it was controversial, from safety guarantees and operating conditions to the name itself - in the word "corridor" one can hear the exclusive right of Azerbaijanis to use this road. And given the strategic importance of the region, this is dangerous: Baku has a theoretical opportunity to simply deprive Armenia of access to the border with Iran, and then instead of two windows to the outside world, the Armenians will have one, the article emphasizes.
All the more surprising was the statement by the assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, Hikmet Hajiyev, that the route through Armenia had "lost its attractiveness for Baku", and instead it could be implemented through Iran. "Our agenda was only to build transport communications and communications within the framework of bilateral cooperation. If this is the case - yes, but if not - well, okay. It remains on the table, but the Armenian side will be required to show that they are really interested in this," Hajiyev said.