Crossroads of Peace to remain on paper - expert

ArmInfo.The Armenian authorities' initiative aimed at unblocking regional transport links is nothing but a good intention that is most likely to remain on paper, political expert Benjamin Matevosyan told ArmInfo as he commented on Armenian Premier Nikol Pashinyan's recent initiative Crossroads of Peace at the Siko Road forum in Tbilisi, Georgia.  

On October 26, speaking in the capital of Georgia, Prime Minister of  Armenia Nikol Pashinyan said that the government of the republic has  developed and presents the "Crossroads of the World" project as an  important part of the peace agenda. The key meaning of this project  is the development of communications between Armenia, Turkey,  Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran through the repair,  construction and operation of roads, railways, pipelines, cables,  power lines. "The railways passing through the south and north of  Armenia have not been functioning at the regional level for thirty  years, numerous highways connecting the East and West are not  functioning, while the resumption of operation of these roads would  be short and efficient, both railway and road route connecting the  Caspian Sea with the Mediterranean. In the same way, these railway  and road communications can become an effective way to connect the  Persian Gulf with the Black Sea, including with Georgian ports. This  project will bring great benefits to all countries in our region, and  I want to draw the attention of governments and private investors to  this opportunity," Armenia's premier said. 

In this regard, the political scientist raises the question of why  Turkey and Azerbaijan should take part in the development of Armenia.  He expressed confidence that both Ankara and Baku will in every  possible way hinder the implementation of the initiative. The  presence of some roads in the country will never be critical for  Turkey and Azerbaijan. "All those maps that were presented in  Tbilisi, according to which Armenia will have exits in four  directions, will remain only on paper," Matevosyan noted, recalling  in this regard the statement of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei  Overchuk on the redirection of the railway from Azerbaijan to  Nakhichevan through the territory of Iran, bypassing Armenia. In  particular, Overchuk stated that the Syunik section is not considered  in the context of the North-South ITC due to the lack of a final  position of Yerevan.

Matevosyan also recalled the previous initiatives of the Armenian  authorities, for the implementation of which no real steps were  taken. The expert, in particular, pointed to the "Armenia -2050"  program, which was proposed before the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh  in 2020: it provided for bringing the country's population to 5  million people by 2050, creating 1.5 million new workers places, a  20-fold increase in GDP, etc., but, as history itself shows, no  action was taken in this direction. A similar fate will await the  Crossroads of the World project, Matevosyan is sure.

In turn, political scientist Sergei Melkonyan urged not to create  illusions about the project. "Neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan are  interested in turning Armenia into a communications crossroads. They  have their own agenda, according to which Nakhijevan will become this  crossroads. At the same time, the most important section of the road  will stretch from Nakhijevan to Turkey, the political scientist is  sure. "Thus, the Crossroads of the World will not become a window to  the world, but a window to Turkey," Melkonyan emphasized.

It should be noted that Forbes magazine also returned to the topic,  raising the question of the possibility of economic cooperation  between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The article, authored by regional  specialist Kirill Krivosheev, recalls that Baku and Yerevan have  recently made opposing statements about the economic future of the  region. "Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, visiting Tbilisi,  presented an optimistic project "Crossroads of the World", which  involves the development of transport communications with all  neighbors: Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey. At the same time,  Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev said that the  corridor through the Armenian territory of Baku is no longer needed.

Regional specialist Kirill Krivosheev is convinced that in this way  Yerevan is being offered two scenarios - codependency or suffocation.  Its author points out the unexpected nature of the speech of the  Armenian prime minister in Tbilisi. A map of Armenia was shown on the  large screen, from which four arrows emanated - to the Black Sea, the  Caspian Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf. Pashinyan  also proposed the principles on which transit would be carried out,  and they succinctly reflected all Yerevan's concerns about this  matter. The first and main condition is that "all infrastructure,  including roads, railways, airways, pipelines, cables, power lines,  operate under the sovereignty and jurisdiction of the countries  through which they pass." Secondly, "each country carries out border  and customs control on its territory through its government agencies,  and also ensures the security of infrastructure, including the safety  of goods, vehicles and people." It is also noted that "all countries  use each other's infrastructure on the basis of equality and  reciprocity."

The picture was complemented by the favorable assumption of the  Deputy Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures of  Armenia Hakob Vardanyan that in the future Armenia could buy  Azerbaijani gas and even serve as a transit point for its supplies to  Europe. All this sounds great, but it could only work if Armenia was  perceived by Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey as an equal partner.  However, this is not at all true. All three players have the  opportunity to push for better conditions for themselves, which means  they will try to do so. At the same time, Yerevan's idea of getting  equally comfortable access to four seas and two oceans is needed only  by itself.

Of course, the author of the article in Forbes continues, no one  expects close cooperation between the countries, but there is hope  that they will at least allow each other transit through their  territories. The Azerbaijanis need access to Nakhichevan and Turkey -  and the easiest way to get there is by restoring the Soviet railway  through Armenia, but the Armenians need another access to Russia, and  they cannot get it except through Azerbaijan. True, in this matter,  as elsewhere, the rule of the strong worked and instead of unblocking  all communications, which was discussed initially, only one  infrastructure project was de facto discussed - the so-called  Zangezur corridor from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan through Armenia.  Literally everything about it was controversial, from safety  guarantees and operating conditions to the name itself - in the word  "corridor" one can hear the exclusive right of Azerbaijanis to use  this road. And given the strategic importance of the region, this is  dangerous: Baku has a theoretical opportunity to simply deprive  Armenia of access to the border with Iran, and then instead of two  windows to the outside world, the Armenians will have one, the  article emphasizes.

All the more surprising was the statement by the assistant to the  President of Azerbaijan, Hikmet Hajiyev, that the route through  Armenia had "lost its attractiveness for Baku", and instead it could  be implemented through Iran. "Our agenda was only to build transport  communications and communications within the framework of bilateral  cooperation. If this is the case - yes, but if not - well, okay. It  remains on the table, but the Armenian side will be required to show  that they are really interested in this," Hajiyev said.