ArmInfo. Russian political scientist Sergei Markedonov touched upon accidents and coincidences in the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations.
Thus, reacting to the message that the meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan scheduled for the end of October in Brussels would not take place, he wrote, in particular: "When explaining a chain of certain happenings, we often remember the formula: the first time is simply the result of chance, the second time is a coincidence, the third time is a pattern. During October 2023 alone, negotiations between Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan on European platforms and through the mediation of the EU failed twice."
He reminded that it failed first in Granada, where Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations were supposed to take place within the framework of the European Political Community summit with the participation of representatives of the European Union, Germany and France.
"At the last minute, Ilham Aliyev refused to participate in them. Now Brussels. On October 25, EU Special Representative Toivo Klaar said that negotiations mediated by President of the European Council Charles Michel will not take place until the end of this month. And it is possible that problems may arise with this in November as well. Well, Moscow has a chance to seize the initiative.
Azerbaijan's refusal is understandable. Baku took almost everything it wanted. Not just territories. Nagorno-Karabakh was obtained without the Armenian community. Even if someone wants to return, it will be purely "humanitarian" return; the "returnees" will not bring any socio-political project. And And Yerevan will be unwilling and unable to join any hypothetical Armenian program for Azerbaijani Karabakh," the Russian expert believes.
At the same time, he believes that Yerevan has concerns of a different kind. "The Armenian leadership would like to sign a peace treaty. But it is far from a fact that everything will be done according to the clear "Alma-Ata patterns" (reference to the 1991 Declaration). Azerbaijan, feeling strong, can afford to wait and approach the text of the Treaty with some "creative ideas". And it's not a fact that anyone will be able to resist this. Yerevan is going through a difficult period of relations with Moscow. But the EU is not an alternative or a solution. Claims can be made against Russia (andand let's note that they are not all purely emotional and unreasonable). But neither before 2023 nor after the EU (and even the U.S.) has anything that could be considered a "compensation mechanism", and it is unlikely that they will have one, Markedonov is convinced. At the same time, he believes that a peace treaty by the end of the current calendar year is possible, and, moreover, possible under both EU and Russian mediation.
"But we must understand that the framework document itself, without specific "content," will not end the conflict. Until a number of essential issues (from demarcation of the state border to enclaves) are resolved one way or another, in one direction or another.
And last but not least important point. There are many fair complaints and reasonable substantive questions regarding the behavior of the official Armenian leadership both within the country and in the international arena. However, it is extremely important not to go to extremes or personalize bilateral relations, which is done all the time in our country. At the beginning of the 20th century, the most insightful politicians in the West, even those who disliked or even hated the Bolsheviks, understood that in those specific historical circumstances, millions of "ordinary Russian peasants" lived and spoke in the voice of Lenin and voiced the thoughts of the "leader." In today's Armenia, many thousands of its citizens speak the "language" of Pashinyan. Whether we like it or not is a separate question.
And if "change regime" is not our method, then this case should not certainly be treated with TV products of dubious quality that sends us back to the popular heroes of Yuri Olesha. Empathy + professionalism + non-publicity. These are the medicines that are better suited than others today," Markedonov summed up.