Opinion: peace treaty between Baku, Yerevan is possible by end of  year, under moderation of both EU, Russia

ArmInfo. Russian political scientist Sergei Markedonov touched upon accidents and coincidences in the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations.

 Thus, reacting to the message that the meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan  scheduled for the end of October in Brussels would not take place, he  wrote, in particular: "When explaining a chain of certain happenings,  we often remember the formula: the first time is simply the result of  chance, the second time is a coincidence, the third time is a  pattern. During October 2023 alone, negotiations between Ilham Aliyev  and Nikol Pashinyan on European platforms and through the mediation  of the EU failed twice."

He reminded that it failed first in Granada, where  Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations were supposed to take place within  the framework of the European Political Community summit with the  participation of representatives of the European Union, Germany and  France.

"At the last minute, Ilham Aliyev refused to participate in them. Now  Brussels. On October 25, EU Special Representative Toivo Klaar said  that negotiations mediated by President of the European Council  Charles Michel will not take place until the end of this month. And  it is possible that problems may arise with this in November as well.  Well, Moscow has a chance to seize the initiative.

Azerbaijan's refusal is understandable. Baku took almost everything  it wanted. Not just territories.  Nagorno-Karabakh was obtained  without the Armenian community. Even if someone wants to return, it  will be purely "humanitarian" return; the "returnees" will not bring  any socio-political project. And And Yerevan will be unwilling and  unable to join any hypothetical Armenian program for Azerbaijani  Karabakh," the Russian expert believes.

At the same time, he believes that Yerevan has concerns of a  different kind. "The Armenian leadership would like to sign a peace  treaty. But it is far from a fact that everything will be done  according to the clear "Alma-Ata patterns" (reference to the 1991  Declaration). Azerbaijan, feeling strong, can afford to wait and  approach the text of the Treaty with some "creative ideas". And it's  not a fact that anyone will be able to resist this. Yerevan is going  through a difficult period of relations with Moscow. But the EU is  not an alternative or a solution. Claims can be made against Russia  (andand let's note that they are not all purely emotional and  unreasonable). But neither before 2023 nor after the EU (and even the  U.S.) has anything that could be considered a "compensation  mechanism", and it is unlikely that they will have one, Markedonov is  convinced. At the same time, he believes that a peace treaty by the  end of the current calendar year is possible, and, moreover, possible  under both EU and Russian mediation.

"But we must understand that the framework document itself, without  specific "content," will not end the conflict. Until a number of  essential issues (from demarcation of the state border to enclaves)  are resolved one way or another, in one direction or another.

And last but not least important point. There are many fair  complaints and reasonable substantive questions regarding the  behavior of the official Armenian leadership both within the country  and in the international arena. However, it is extremely important  not to go to extremes or personalize bilateral relations, which is  done all the time in our country. At the beginning of the 20th  century, the most insightful politicians in the West, even those who  disliked or even hated the Bolsheviks, understood that in those  specific historical circumstances, millions of "ordinary Russian  peasants" lived and spoke in the voice of Lenin and voiced the  thoughts of the "leader." In today's Armenia, many thousands of its  citizens speak the "language" of Pashinyan. Whether we like it or not  is a separate question.

And if "change regime" is not our method, then this case should not  certainly be treated with TV products of dubious quality that sends  us back to the popular heroes of Yuri Olesha. Empathy +  professionalism + non-publicity. These are the medicines that are  better suited than others today," Markedonov summed up.