Wednesday, October 18 2023 11:32

ArmInfo.With the end of Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto independence, questions arise: what was Israel’s weight in Azerbaijan’s victory? And what are the reasons for this interregional alliance?

On September 19, Azerbaijan launched a 24-hour attack on the Nagorno-Karabakh region, bringing the ethnic Armenian enclave back under its control and ending its brief history as a de facto independent state. 

This victory has received attention, with particular reference to Israel’s involvement in the arms trade with Azerbaijan.

Brief history of the conflict

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has historical roots, but the most intense phase occurred in the 1980s when the region sought independence from Azerbaijan, generating ethnic and territorial tensions. 

In 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence, triggering a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

The 1994 ceasefire did not fully resolve tensions, and renewed violence occurred in September 2020, culminating in a ceasefire agreement in November 2020, which resulted in significant territorial changes favorable to Azerbaijan.

Indeed, the Russian-brokered ceasefire included the opening of the “Zangezur Corridor,” a strip of land connecting Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan. 

In December 2022, Baku blocked passage through the Lachin Corridor, the only link between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, setting the stage for the Sept. 19 attack that underscored the lack of weaponry and support for a counteroffensive.

In fact, this latest offensive saw a clear Azerbaijani preponderance and, as a result, the inescapable surrender of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the end of its independence.

Israel’s role and interests

Since the beginning of the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, Israel has established an effective alliance with Azerbaijan, selling billions of dollars worth of armaments to the country. 

Between 2015 and 2019, Israel was the source of 60% of Azerbaijan’s average annual arms purchases, the Institute for War and Peace Reporting reported.

Among ceded armaments, particular emphasis is placed on drones, mainly intelligence drones and tactical drones. 

Recognizing the strategic importance of these instruments, Azerbaijan also decided to produce them locally through a joint venture between its Ministry of Defense Industry and the Israeli company Aeronautics Defense Systems.

In addition to this, Israeli company Elta Systems contributed by providing Baku with comprehensive digital mapping of Nagorno-Karabakh, giving Azerbaijani forces a significant advantage during operations. 

During the 2020 conflict, an airlift across Turkish and Georgian airspace enabled a steady supply of ammunition and equipment to Azerbaijani forces via nearly a hundred cargo planes.

The inevitable question is: What does Israel gain from this alliance? 

First, it opens up the possibility of having a premier military intelligence infrastructure, with an anti-Iranian focus, strategically positioned on the territory of Azerbaijan, on the border with Iran.

Indeed, both countries share a desire to contain Iran. 

Israel is concerned about Iran’s regional policies, including its nuclear and missile programs, as well as its support for groups considered terrorist. Israel’s security is a key priority, and containment of Iran is considered a crucial element in ensuring that security.

As for Azerbaijan, both countries share the same stream of Islam, hosting a Shiite majority. However, Azerbaijan is a highly secularized country, with one of the lowest religious practices worldwide. 

Azerbaijani authorities fear that Iran may exploit the religious factor to influence Baku. For this reason, they have seen the emergence of the Huseynyuns, an armed group associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards, as a threat with the goal of establishing an Iranian-like theocratic state.

In addition, some members of the Iranian parliament have raised doubts about the validity of the borders between the two countries, saying that many Azerbaijani citizens, especially those residing in Nakhchivan, intend to reunite with the Iranian motherland and get rid of Turkish and Israeli influences in the Caucasus. 

However, there is to note that the Islamic Republic is at odds with Azerbaijan for various reasons, including the “Zangezur Corridor” foreseen in the ceasefire agreement of November 2020, which Tehran claims involves a change in its borders, hindering Iranian access to Armenia, an important Iranian ally.

The cooperation between Baku and Tel Aviv therefore included, with a view to control and contain Iran, the construction of electronic spy stations on Azerbaijan’s southern borders, thus monitoring Iranian activities. 

In addition, Baku would authorize Mossad to establish an advanced base of operations on its territory to conduct operations inside Iran, while making its airports available to Israel in case Tel Aviv needs to advance attacks on Iranian nuclear sites.

However, cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan is not limited to the military sector, but also extends to economic projects. 

Israeli companies are participating in reconstruction projects in the “liberated areas” of Nagorno-Karabakh. Tel Aviv has also committed its expertise in agricultural production, particularly wheat cultivation, to address the global shortage caused by the war in Ukraine. 

Finally, it should be noted that Israel is heavily dependent on Baku oil, with 65% of its crude oil coming from Azerbaijan in 2021, according to OEC data.

Conclusions

In conclusion, analysis of the complex dynamic between Israel and Azerbaijan in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict reveals an intricate web of strategic, military, and economic interests that have shaped relations between these regional actors. 

The alliance between the two countries, although often overlooked in broader debates about the conflict, has proven crucial for both, providing mutual benefits on both the security and economic fronts.

Israel’s role as a major supplier of armaments, with a focus on drones, has given Azerbaijan a significant advantage in military operations and in Baku’s ability to carry out a successful offensive in just 24 hours, forcing Nagorno-Karabakh to surrender.

The cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan, therefore, although often underestimated in the regional geopolitical narrative, emerges as a crucial element in shaping the balance of power and geopolitical dynamics in the Caucasus area.

This cooperation underscores the global intertwining of regions and the expansion of regional interests beyond their borders. 

Israel, with a keen eye on Azerbaijan, aims to contain the expansion of Iranian influence, highlighting a transregional struggle between the two Middle East players.