ArmInfo.Moscow must realize that handing Artsakh over to the Baku regime poses serious risks to the geo-strategy and domestic stability of Russia itself, Vahe Davtyan, Doctor of Political Science and Director of the Institute for Energy Security NGO, states in an article.
Armenia is faced with very clear demands: secession from the CSTO and EAEU and withdrawal of the Russian military base.
"It has repeatedly been said that Turkey's influence will soon fill the strategic vacuum. This problem seems to exist for Armenia alone - but at fist sight. Such alignment of forces will afford a serious opportunity for Ankara to play an anti-Russian card in the North Caucasus. It could be manifested in two ways. First, Ankara will attempt to give new impetus to the terrorist-separatist project 'Republic of Ichkeria', whose attempted implementation dates back to the 1990s. The proponents and beneficiaries of this project are still involved in the game as they continue a guerilla war in small camps in the North Caucasus forests.
"Secondly, Ankara will support the Baku regime in asserting its territorial claims on Daghestan. Should the North Caucasus explode, Ankara could raise the issue of return of 'historical Azerbaijani lands' in exchange for support of terrorist groups," Mr Davtyan said.
All the preconditions are available for unfavorable developments in the North Caucasus. With the regional security system based on one person, Ramzan Kadyrov, has put Moscow in a rather difficult situation, given the Chechen leader's health problems.
"Kadyrov's death or resignation could destroy the entire security system in the North Caucasus, with no alternative available and rival clans present there. The fact is that Moscow has since 1817 (the outbreak of the Caucasus war) failed to establish its full control over the problematic region.
"By 'managing' Armenia and Azerbaijan, Ankara will turn into a key geopolitical actor in the North Caucasus. This is the price the handover of the 'geopolitical trigger', Artsakh, to Baku," Mr Davtyan writes.