Monday, September 18 2023 11:14

ArmInfo.Russian expert Sergey Markedonov offers his analysis of the regional processes and  Turkey's goals in the region. 

Turkish President Recep Erdogan offered a quadripartite meeting to  the Russian, Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders to discuss the  settlement prospects of a long-standing ethno-political conflict.  

"Such a proposal has been made. Russian President Vladimir Putin,  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Premier Nikol Pashinyan  and I. Let us meet and discuss the step we need to take," Mr  Markedonov said as he quoted the Turkish leader. 

"Can this initiative by Erdogan be viewed as something new in  Ankara's foreign policy? Or is it quite logical in the context of all  the previous actions by Turkey in the Caucasus? Does this activity  pose any risks to Moscow or is it 'according to the plan'? I am going  to offer some polemical arguments," Mr Markedonov said. 

After the "second Karabakh war" Ankara had a mixed feeling: on the  one hand, it was its strategic ally's military victory, which was  like a heavy knockdown if not a knockout. "Turkish politicians,  diplomats and top brass contributed much to Azerbaijan's 'success  story.' The regional status quo was upset with them playing a  decisive role, without any obvious support on the part of Russia or  the West. On the other hand, they failed to convert their success.  Peacemaking, statements on ceasefire and restoration in the region  passed by them. Moreover, both the West and Iran recognized Moscow's  exclusive role. Ankara attempted either to revive the half-dead 3+3  format or hint that there would be no success without it in the  region, which, however, was mainly aimed at the audience," the  Russian expert said.  

The situation is different now. Armenia is weak and demoralized, the  West and Russia are competing over Nagorno-Karabakh as much as over  Transdniestria and Abkhazia. "And Moscow is now much more dependent  on Anraka and on the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance than it was before  2022. Politically and economically, Turkey's opinion should be taken  into account more than it was a couple of years ago. The West need  the Caucasus without Russia, but Washington and Brussels would not  mind outsourcing this function to its NATO ally - albeit a  difficult-to-deal-with one," Mr Markedonov said.  

He warns against forgetting the fact that before 2022 the Russian  format of negotiations on Nagorno- Karabakh was an exclusive one (the  Minsk group was in a 'subconscious state', unable to get over the  blow of 2020). 

"At present we have three formats, and Russian has to a great extent  lost its exclusive role. All the facts are in Turkey's favor. And it  would 'commit a sin' if it did not take advantage of the  aforementioned circumstances. 

"Do not be deceived. No quarrels with the West will ever make Erdogan  a Russian puppet or well disposed to Moscow. He is in the habit of  being a leader and ambitious person. So the Turkish leader will lead  the game with an ultimate aim of fighting for peace in the Caucasus.  Of course, each peace has its author, and the Turkish leader wants it  to receive his 'glorious name'," Mr Markedonov said. 

On the other hand, it is evidence of more complicated tasks,  particularly for Russia.

"Many things will have to be viewed from different angles - in a more  rational and prudent manner. We should realize that the  'multipolarity' we need and benefit from could be shifted by others -  and not toward us. Less PR more essence, deeds, not words less  dreaming more specific projects, aware of the fact that our  partner-rivals have their own rivals too," Mr Markedonov said.