Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention warns of possible genocide  in Artsakh by Azerbaijan 

ArmInfo. The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention has released an emergency draft  version of the Report on Risk Factors and Indicators of the Crime of Genocide in the Republic of Artsakh: Applying the UN Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes to the Nagorno- Karabakh Conflict. 

The Executive Summary reads: 

This emergency draft version of the Report on Risk Factors and  Indicators of the Crime of Genocide in the Republic of Artsakh:  Applying the UN Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes to the  Nagorno- Karabakh Conflict is being released ahead of schedule due to  the rapidly intensifying humanitarian crisis in the Republic of  Artsakh that is being caused by the Azerbaijani blockade of the  country since 12 December 2022.

The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention hopes that this report  will contribute to global resolve to protect the lives and the  identity of the Armenians of Artsakh, prevent a Second Armenian  Genocide, pressure Azerbaijan to accept self-determination for the  people of Artsakh, and initiate a long-overdue process of  transformative justice in the region that allows Armenians and Azeris  to voice their historical grievances and find common ground around  accountability, peace-building, and human security.

The Report uses the United Nations's Framework of Analysis for  Atrocity Crimes to outline and analyze (in detail) the risk factors  and indicators for atrocity crimes, with a special focus on the crime  of genocide.  We have chosen to focus on the crime of genocide  because the evidence in this report points to the existence of  several serious red flags for genocide, typical genocidal patterns,  and evidence of the special intent to commit that crime.

In fact, the evidence presented here suggests that the crime of  genocide may already be taking place in the form of the blockade,  which is both "Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of  the group" and "[d]eliberately inflicting on the group conditions of  life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or  in part" (paragraphs II.b. and II.c. of the 1948 Genocide  Convention). Azerbaijan's crimes conform to Patterns 5 (Gross human  rights violations + mass cultural destruction), 6 (Man-made  famine/"Genocide by Attrition"), 7 (Environmental despoliation  /"Ecocide" and land alienation), and 9 (Denial and/or prevention of  identity) of the Lemkin Institute's Ten Patterns of Genocide and seem  to be headed towards patterns 1 

(Gender-neutral mass murder characterized by gendered atrocity)  and/or 2 (Mass murder of 'battle-aged men' + atrocities against women  and children).1

A particular feature of this report is its documentation of  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's very public commitment to rid  the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) of any remnant of the  autonomous historical and cultural community known as the Armenians  of Artsakh, or Artsakhsis. His public speeches, the Azerbaijani  blockade of the Lachin Corridor, repeated breaches of the Tripartite  Ceasefire Statement of November 2020, and the destruction of Armenian  cultural heritage in areas of Artsakh under Azerbaijani occupation  appear to show the special intent to commit genocide.

The deep imbrication of eliminationist anti-Armenian hate within the  Aliyev regime and Azerbaijani institutions of government leads us to  conclude that Azerbaijan is a genocidal state. This fact must be  addressed before there can be any peace in the region.

There is alarming evidence that President Aliyev may be planning a  military assault on Artsakh in the very near future. As we note in  Section 5.4 of our report, on 16 August 2023, President Aliyev signed  a new decree ordering all eligible citizens 18 years of age or older  to report for military service between 1 October and 31 October 2023.  Furthermore, as noted in section 8.1, Azerbaijan is firing on the  Gegharkunik Province of the Republic of Armenia with small arms and  mortars and has moved and concentrated its forces along the entire  line of contact with Artsakh.

A military assault on Artsakh could lead to the mass murder stage of  genocide. It would almost assuredly result in the forced displacement  of Armenians from Artsakh and the widespread commission of genocidal  atrocities, reflecting those committed in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh  War of 2020 and subsequent hostilities. If the Armenians of Artsakh  were to be displaced, it would not only create an enormous movement  of refugees en masse that could further destabilize the region, but  also it would result in the genocidal destruction of a people, as the  Artsakhs Armenians would lose their distinct identity as Artsakhsis,  an identity that has been forged through centuries-millennia-of  independent cultural flourishing in their mountains and valleys.

For details follow link:   https://www.lemkininstitute.com/_files/ugd/9bc553_ceb61de5918f4670bec931b3a79d1baa.pdf?fbclid=Iw AR1LFgTcCGXmWc1yaG6fffuwJJV4CH2UmaJN6d1Ll0Moewl3ZPKl5NhjWCc