ArmInfo.The resignation of the president or the dissolution of the unrecognized republic? This question was asked by Russian political scientist Sergei Markedonov against the background of the announcement of the resignation of Artsakh President Arayik Harutyunyan.
<The head of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) Arayik Harutyunyan announced his resignation. From September 1, he ceases to perform presidential duties. Every act has its symbolic meaning. 32 years ago, on September 2, 1991, at a joint session of the Nagorno-Karabakh regional and Shaumyan district councils of people's deputies of the Azerbaijan SSR, the NKR was proclaimed within the borders of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAO) and the adjacent Shahumyan region.
Since then, the definition of the prospects of this territory (political and legal status, identity, the key plot in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict) has largely determined not only the current agenda of Baku and Yerevan, but also the regional (dis) order in the Transcaucasus. The question is inevitable. Harutyunyan's resignation is a change of persons or a change of vectors >, the expert asked. He stated that in the last 3.5 months the Karabakh situation looked as if frozen. <Why do we take May of this year as a starting point? It was then that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan. It seems that Baku needs only one and a half steps to complete the process of restoration of "territorial integrity". However, the Lachin affair, having secured a certain advantage for Azerbaijan, has not yet turned into an endgame. Why?>, he continued.
According to Markedonov, the Karabakh paradoxes are being turned on again. The expert believes that the West and Russia have been considering this direction of Eurasia as an arena of desperate struggle for more than a year. However, he continued, the Russians, the Americans, and the Europeans (for very different reasons) do not want a repetition in the Transcaucasus of either the "Kraina-2" scenario or some regional version of Tamil Eelam. <Azerbaijan, on the one hand, does not want "Georgianization" in the manner of Mikheil Saakashvili in relations with Moscow, and on the other hand, does not intend to go into confrontation with the West (a strategic ally of its strategic allies Turkey and Israel). And so it presses gently, but steadily. "The salami tactic" has not been canceled, but its pace has slowed down somewhat," the political scientist is convinced. At the same time, he drew attention to the fact that all of Pashinyan's intentions did not cause internal sharp aggravation inside Armenia, the protest actions are in the format of a "statistical error".
<And, most likely, on September 17, the pro-government candidate Tigran Avinyan will get a chance to become the mayor of the capital's municipality. If there are no surprises (whatever one may say, there is a public policy in Armenia). Under these conditions, Pashinyan's government is trying (whether successfully or not is another question) to secure a "security consortium" for itself, trying to squeeze the maximum out of the "salami tactics" slowdown and sometimes falling into a bizarre foreign policy eclecticism," the expert added.
Against this background, Markedonov continued, the idea of "direct negotiations" between the Armenians of Karabakh and Baku becomes a kind of chance to slow down the "salami tactics". According to him, the international community (again for very different reasons) is ready to support this project. <Not because it is so progressive. But for various reasons in the big capitals they do not want the "Balkanization" of the Karabakh settlement (why is the topic of a separate monograph).
It is unlikely that Arayik Harutyunyan, who became the head of the NKR through elections and through a public denial of Azerbaijani sovereignty, can be a negotiating partner. Most likely, this role can be played by a person who is not too publicly visible, a career official who understands a lot about sensitive, but hidden from prying eyes, affairs. The new state minister (analogous to the prime minister's position) Samvel Shahramanyan made a career as a security official, was engaged in " Patriotics ". This should not be embarrassing, very often it is people immersed in the power "materiel" who become better negotiators than politicized "theorists", the political scientist noted.
<Will all of this have geopolitical implications? How not to be, the region has a serious impact on the overall situation in Eurasia. This topic is a separate comment. Let's just say that no linear element can be here. After all, many people in Armenia are still reflecting on the "reduction" of the national project back in the first quarter of the 20th century. But at the same time, they understand the importance of Russia as a partner. However, this is no reason for Moscow's self-complacency. Too much needs to be avoided to maintain positions in the Caucasus," Markedonov summed up.