Markedonov: Resignation of president or dissolution of unrecognized  republic?

ArmInfo.The resignation of the president or the dissolution of the unrecognized republic? This  question was asked by Russian political scientist Sergei Markedonov against the background of the announcement of the resignation of Artsakh President Arayik Harutyunyan. 

<The head of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) Arayik  Harutyunyan announced his resignation. From September 1, he ceases to  perform presidential duties. Every act has its symbolic meaning. 32  years ago, on September 2, 1991, at a joint session of the  Nagorno-Karabakh regional and Shaumyan district councils of people's  deputies of the Azerbaijan SSR, the NKR was proclaimed within the  borders of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAO) and the  adjacent Shahumyan region.

Since then, the definition of the prospects of this territory  (political and legal status, identity, the key plot in the  Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict) has largely determined not only the  current agenda of Baku and Yerevan, but also the regional (dis) order  in the Transcaucasus. The question is inevitable. Harutyunyan's  resignation is a change of persons or a change of vectors >, the  expert asked. He stated that in the last 3.5 months the Karabakh  situation looked as if frozen. <Why do we take May of this year as a  starting point? It was then that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol  Pashinyan confirmed that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan. It  seems that Baku needs only one and a half steps to complete the  process of restoration of "territorial integrity". However, the  Lachin affair, having secured a certain advantage for Azerbaijan, has  not yet turned into an endgame. Why?>, he continued.

According to Markedonov, the Karabakh paradoxes are being turned on  again. The expert believes that the West and Russia have been  considering this direction of Eurasia as an arena of desperate  struggle for more than a year. However, he continued, the Russians,  the Americans, and the Europeans (for very different reasons) do not  want a repetition in the Transcaucasus of either the "Kraina-2"  scenario or some regional version of Tamil Eelam. <Azerbaijan, on the  one hand, does not want "Georgianization" in the manner of Mikheil  Saakashvili in relations with Moscow, and on the other hand, does not  intend to go into confrontation with the West (a strategic ally of  its strategic allies Turkey and Israel). And so it presses gently,  but steadily. "The salami tactic" has not been canceled, but its pace  has slowed down somewhat," the political scientist is convinced. At  the same time, he drew attention to the fact that all of Pashinyan's  intentions did not cause internal sharp aggravation inside Armenia,  the protest actions are in the format of a "statistical error".

<And, most likely, on September 17, the pro-government candidate  Tigran Avinyan will get a chance to become the mayor of the capital's  municipality. If there are no surprises (whatever one may say, there  is a public policy in Armenia). Under these conditions, Pashinyan's  government is trying (whether successfully or not is another  question) to secure a "security consortium" for itself, trying to  squeeze the maximum out of the "salami tactics" slowdown and  sometimes falling into a bizarre foreign policy eclecticism," the  expert added.

Against this background, Markedonov continued, the idea of "direct  negotiations" between the Armenians of Karabakh and Baku becomes a  kind of chance to slow down the "salami tactics". According to him,  the international community (again for very different reasons) is  ready to support this project. <Not because it is so progressive. But  for various reasons in the big capitals they do not want the  "Balkanization" of the Karabakh settlement (why is the topic of a  separate monograph).

It is unlikely that Arayik Harutyunyan, who became the head of the  NKR through elections and through a public denial of Azerbaijani  sovereignty, can be a negotiating partner. Most likely, this role can  be played by a person who is not too publicly visible, a career  official who understands a lot about sensitive, but hidden from  prying eyes, affairs. The new state minister (analogous to the prime  minister's position) Samvel Shahramanyan made a career as a security  official, was engaged in " Patriotics ". This should not be  embarrassing, very often it is people immersed in the power  "materiel" who become better negotiators than politicized  "theorists", the political scientist noted.

<Will all of this have geopolitical implications? How not to be, the  region has a serious impact on the overall situation in Eurasia. This  topic is a separate comment. Let's just say that no linear element  can be here. After all, many people in Armenia are still reflecting  on the "reduction" of the national project back in the first quarter  of the 20th century. But at the same time, they understand the  importance of Russia as a partner. However, this is no reason for  Moscow's self-complacency. Too much needs to be avoided to maintain  positions in the Caucasus," Markedonov summed up.