Arminfo.info


 Wednesday, May 17 2023 16:59
Alexandr Avanesov

Pashinyan opens Overton`s Window and now he was trapped - opposition  political expert

Pashinyan opens Overton`s Window and now he was trapped - opposition  political expert

ArmInfo.The results of the meeting in Brussels between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, with the participation of the  President of the European Council, Charles Michel, were expected, as  they were a continuation of the results of the Prague meeting on 

October 6 last year, where it was already announced that Armenia and  Azerbaijan recognize each other's territorial integrity based on the  1991 Almaty Declaration. Political analyst Yervand Bozoyan, stated in  an interview with the fifth Armenian TV channel.

Bozoyan, referring to the opinion of international observers, noted  the diplomatic victory of Ilham Aliyev, who received a significant  positional advantage on this diplomatic track. In fact, only two or  three points remained unresolved, after the agreement of which it  will be possible to conclude a peace treaty.

The political scientist stressed that after the tripartite statement  of the leaders of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan dated November 9,  2020, the foreign policy course chosen by Yerevan is completely  incomprehensible, and therefore most of the Armenian society  continues to be in a state of uncertainty, which is intensified  against the backdrop of internal troubles, when one part of society  trusts the opposition, and the other part trusts the authorities.  According to the analyst, after the defeat in the war, the Russian  side advised Pashinyan not to discuss the topic of Nagorno-Karabakh  in the negotiations, since in this case Yerevan would clearly suffer  a diplomatic defeat. "The Russians are interested in keeping Karabakh  as part of Azerbaijan in an indefinite status, and the Russian  peacekeeping forces would continue their mission, which would allow  Moscow to have a lever of influence on Baku," Bozoyan said.

However, Pashinyan nevertheless began his western negotiation track  and agreed on the recognition of territorial integrity. The political  scientist believes that the Prime Minister of Armenia did this  because he had obligations both to the West and to Turkish President  Recep Tayyip Erdogan. To the latter he owes the preservation of  power. In this context, referring to his personal conversation with  one of the high-ranking Russian officials, the political scientist  said that during the post-war opposition demonstrations, the  head of  the Turkish state, Erdogan, personally asked Russian President  Vladimir Putin to give Pashinyan a second chance. The fears of the  Russian side were related to the possibility of a new war if new  forces came to power in Armenia. And the resumption of hostilities  could lead to unwanted Russian-Turkish clashes. "The people of  Armenia were also frightened by the possibility of a new war if the  opposition came to power, and for this reason they voted in early  parliamentary elections not for Pashinyan's party, but against the  war," he said.

As a result, in the spring of 2022, Pashinyan opened the Overton's  Window and the idea of lowering the bar of Artsakh's status emerged,  which would allow to come to an agreement on peace with Azerbaijan.  That is, what Turkey and most Western countries demanded of him.

And by September last year, Pashinyan was almost ready to give  Karabakh to Azerbaijan, fearing at the same time the reaction of the  Armenian society, constantly dragging out this issue, which, in turn,  displeased Baku, which undertook a military provocation on September  11-12 last year, with intentions to put pressure on Yerevan.

Aliyev achieved his goal when in Prague on October 6, 2022, it was  officially announced that the parties recognized the territorial  integrity. This caused a certain shock in Moscow and in that part of  the Armenian society that understood what was happening. "The  Russians then answered this by saying that they cannot be greater  Armenians than the Armenians themselves," the political scientist  recalled, noting that Moscow's reaction was natural, since Pashinyan,  working on two tracks - Western and Russian - preferred to actually  go for major concessions in the West, which devalued the Russian  negotiation track, which Azerbaijan no longer needs as unpromising.

Having recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, the Prime  Minister of the Republic of Armenia, in fact, legitimized the  blockade of the Lachin corridor, accepting that both Nagorno-Karabakh  and Lachin are inalienable territories of Azerbaijan. The West really  needed this in order to further destroy the legitimate bases for the  presence of Russian peacekeeping forces in Karabakh. Thus, the West,  represented by the United States, Great Britain, and Israel, gets the  opportunity, firstly, to cut off Azerbaijan from the influence of  Russia, and, secondly, to realize its serious geostrategic goals by  creating a bridgehead against Iran from Azerbaijan.

According to Bozoyan, the West is currently conducting secret talks  with Pashinyan over the withdrawal of Armenia from the CSTO, the  withdrawal of 102 Russian military bases from Gyumri, and even the  denunciation of the Armenian-Russian mutual assistance treaty. The  West, at the same time, gives only verbal, and not institutional  guarantees of the existential security of the Armenians of  Nagorno-Karabakh and the security of Armenia, and only if the country  starts alliance relations with Turkey. To do so, Pashinyan demanded  the existence of some kind of international platform where all these  issues could be resolved. But Azerbaijan does not agree to this  either, realizing that the leadership of Armenia, like  Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia itself, are in a trap. These are the  current bitter realities. Therefore, the political scientist sees the  change of power in Armenia as the only way out of the current  dangerous impasse.

READ ALL COMMENTS

Левон
Содержание статьи - один из тысячи способов подкопаться под реалполитик. Сторонним заинтересованным непонятно, что вообще хотят власти Армении, под влиянием боевой оппозиции, в отличае от народа самой Армении, изголодавшемся по мире, не желающем идти на убой. Армения может стать новой Украиной, где желание народа, виной руководства, оказалось смахнутыым на бок.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
RA Human Rights Defender launches probe into raids and detentions of  ARF members RA Human Rights Defender launches probe into raids and detentions of  ARF members 
U.S. Congressman Brad Sherman concerned over recent arrests in  Armenia U.S. Congressman Brad Sherman concerned over recent arrests in  Armenia 
Police raid ARF members` homes, detain people Police raid ARF members` homes, detain people 
ANCA CEO raises voice in defense of Russian-Armenian businessman  Samvel Karapetyan ANCA CEO raises voice in defense of Russian-Armenian businessman  Samvel Karapetyan 
OSCE/ODIHR informed of controversy over AAC OSCE/ODIHR informed of controversy over AAC 
Armenia, EU hold sixth meeting of Partnership CommitteeArmenia, EU hold sixth meeting of Partnership Committee
Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to discuss peace deal in Abu  Dhabi Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to discuss peace deal in Abu  Dhabi 
Samvel Karapetyan sues blogger Roman Baghdasaryan demanding retraction and payment of 6 million dramsSamvel Karapetyan sues blogger Roman Baghdasaryan demanding retraction and payment of 6 million drams
Zhanna Andreasyan: RA government  prioritizes development of Armenian StudiesZhanna Andreasyan: RA government  prioritizes development of Armenian Studies
Court`s decision to arrest NA deputy Artur Sargsyan to be appealed- lawyerCourt`s decision to arrest NA deputy Artur Sargsyan to be appealed- lawyer
Artur Sargsyan arrested for 2 monthsArtur Sargsyan arrested for 2 months
ARF members, Russian State Duma representatives discuss regional security issuesARF members, Russian State Duma representatives discuss regional security issues
RA Prime Minister arrives in UAE on working visitRA Prime Minister arrives in UAE on working visit
RA MFA: There can be no agreement on  RA MFA: There can be no agreement on  "Zangezur corridor"
Zakharova comments on information about Azerbaijan selling weapons to UkraineZakharova comments on information about Azerbaijan selling weapons to Ukraine
Oppositionist: It is necessary to integrate Artsakh residents in Armenia in order to move away from the principle of Oppositionist: It is necessary to integrate Artsakh residents in Armenia in order to move away from the principle of "no man, no problem"
Starting January 1, citizenship  services for both obtaining and terminating citizenship will be digitized- MIAStarting January 1, citizenship  services for both obtaining and terminating citizenship will be digitized- MIA
A decision to arrest a member of the National Assembly to be made within the next  2-3 hours - lawyerA decision to arrest a member of the National Assembly to be made within the next  2-3 hours - lawyer
Armenia, Iran  Defense Ministers discuss regional security issuesArmenia, Iran  Defense Ministers discuss regional security issues
Prosperous Armenia Party  leader  interrogated by  Anti-Corruption CommitteeProsperous Armenia Party  leader  interrogated by  Anti-Corruption Committee
Oppositionist: Pashinyan  repressing the opposition to show Aliyev and Erdogan his loyalty to the agreements made with them Oppositionist: Pashinyan  repressing the opposition to show Aliyev and Erdogan his loyalty to the agreements made with them 
AAC followers from all over the world form Pan-Armenian Council for  the Protection of the Armenian ChurchAAC followers from all over the world form Pan-Armenian Council for  the Protection of the Armenian Church
Armenia, Greece discuss recent developments in  South CaucasusArmenia, Greece discuss recent developments in  South Caucasus
Zakharova: Armenian side was offered concrete steps on  stop listsZakharova: Armenian side was offered concrete steps on  stop lists
Briefing on Swiss Peace Initiative for Artsakh  in US CongressBriefing on Swiss Peace Initiative for Artsakh  in US Congress
Lawyer: Nowadays, any political process in Armenia is accompanied by  interference from the state apparatusLawyer: Nowadays, any political process in Armenia is accompanied by  interference from the state apparatus
Armenia to tighten criminal liability for attacks on doctorsArmenia to tighten criminal liability for attacks on doctors
Armenia`s Deputy FM, UN official exchange views on UN80 initiativeArmenia`s Deputy FM, UN official exchange views on UN80 initiative
Court discussing MP`s arrestCourt discussing MP`s arrest
Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to meet in Abu Dhabi Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to meet in Abu Dhabi 
Civil Contract party board meeting take place Civil Contract party board meeting take place 
Judge`s decision on Samvel Karapetyan case one more incitement to legal absurdity - lawyer Judge`s decision on Samvel Karapetyan case one more incitement to legal absurdity - lawyer 
U.S. Sec of State mentioned Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization `for a  reason` - Tammy BruceU.S. Sec of State mentioned Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization `for a  reason` - Tammy Bruce
Azerbaijan`s government plan to take control of Armenia under  humanitarian disguise being executed - Arman Tatoyan Azerbaijan`s government plan to take control of Armenia under  humanitarian disguise being executed - Arman Tatoyan 
Expecting 2026 elections amid promises given to external forces  extremely risky - opposition MPExpecting 2026 elections amid promises given to external forces  extremely risky - opposition MP
Tashir Pizza allowed to resume operation in Abovyan Tashir Pizza allowed to resume operation in Abovyan 
Armenian premier sends congratulatory message to president of Argentina Armenian premier sends congratulatory message to president of Argentina 
Law-enforcers confiscate large batch of drugs Law-enforcers confiscate large batch of drugs 
Aliyev regime continues destroying Artsakh Armenians` property in Stepanakert Aliyev regime continues destroying Artsakh Armenians` property in Stepanakert 
Situation surrounding ENA has political implication - Tashir Situation surrounding ENA has political implication - Tashir 
Armenia`s authorities seeking to neutralize all rivals and form  atmosphere of fear - expert Armenia`s authorities seeking to neutralize all rivals and form  atmosphere of fear - expert 
Armenian authorities prove quality of all before unlawfulness -  Larisa Alaverdyan Armenian authorities prove quality of all before unlawfulness -  Larisa Alaverdyan 
Forest fire prevention discussed at RA Ministry of Interior Forest fire prevention discussed at RA Ministry of Interior 
Washington hopes for peace deal between Armenia, Azerbaijan soon Washington hopes for peace deal between Armenia, Azerbaijan soon 
Aram I calls for putting end to destructive atmosphere in Armenia Aram I calls for putting end to destructive atmosphere in Armenia 
Artur Sargsyan stripped of his parliamentary immunityArtur Sargsyan stripped of his parliamentary immunity
Political scientist: Pashinyan`s government acknowledges that it is  impossible to simultaneously oppose two non-agreement-capable  opposition centersPolitical scientist: Pashinyan`s government acknowledges that it is  impossible to simultaneously oppose two non-agreement-capable  opposition centers
World Council of Churches expresses deep concern regarding recent  developments involving the Armenian Apostolic ChurchWorld Council of Churches expresses deep concern regarding recent  developments involving the Armenian Apostolic Church
Armenian Deputy FM participates in the Special Session of the  Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute on the Review of the  Draft Amendments on the Crime of AggressionArmenian Deputy FM participates in the Special Session of the  Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute on the Review of the  Draft Amendments on the Crime of Aggression
Armenian Ombudsperson signals a violation of lawyers` right to access  their clients in the preliminary investigation bodyArmenian Ombudsperson signals a violation of lawyers` right to access  their clients in the preliminary investigation body
 RA Prime Minister visits Kotayk branch of  SOS Children`s Villages RA Prime Minister visits Kotayk branch of SOS Children`s Villages
Jerusalem`s Armenian Quarter  most targeted by anti- Christian  incidents in Israel - ReportJerusalem`s Armenian Quarter  most targeted by anti- Christian  incidents in Israel - Report
Narek Karapetyan: Authorities want to start a pre-planned process  against Tashir GroupNarek Karapetyan: Authorities want to start a pre-planned process  against Tashir Group
Armenia officially joins UN Countering Terrorism Travel Program Armenia officially joins UN Countering Terrorism Travel Program 
Vice Speaker: The government must respond to threats, otherwise it  will lead to chaosVice Speaker: The government must respond to threats, otherwise it  will lead to chaos
No detainees from among ENA staff members - acting CEONo detainees from among ENA staff members - acting CEO
War in Armenia - politician War in Armenia - politician 
Armenian law-enfrocers publicly ordered to attack AAC - lawyerArmenian law-enfrocers publicly ordered to attack AAC - lawyer
Swiss MPs to present peace initiative on return to Artsakh in  Washington Swiss MPs to present peace initiative on return to Artsakh in  Washington 
RA Human Rights Defender condemns squabble in NA RA Human Rights Defender condemns squabble in NA 
Read more



Commented