Pashinyan opens Overton`s Window and now he was trapped - opposition  political expert

ArmInfo.The results of the meeting in Brussels between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, with the participation of the  President of the European Council, Charles Michel, were expected, as  they were a continuation of the results of the Prague meeting on 

October 6 last year, where it was already announced that Armenia and  Azerbaijan recognize each other's territorial integrity based on the  1991 Almaty Declaration. Political analyst Yervand Bozoyan, stated in  an interview with the fifth Armenian TV channel.

Bozoyan, referring to the opinion of international observers, noted  the diplomatic victory of Ilham Aliyev, who received a significant  positional advantage on this diplomatic track. In fact, only two or  three points remained unresolved, after the agreement of which it  will be possible to conclude a peace treaty.

The political scientist stressed that after the tripartite statement  of the leaders of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan dated November 9,  2020, the foreign policy course chosen by Yerevan is completely  incomprehensible, and therefore most of the Armenian society  continues to be in a state of uncertainty, which is intensified  against the backdrop of internal troubles, when one part of society  trusts the opposition, and the other part trusts the authorities.  According to the analyst, after the defeat in the war, the Russian  side advised Pashinyan not to discuss the topic of Nagorno-Karabakh  in the negotiations, since in this case Yerevan would clearly suffer  a diplomatic defeat. "The Russians are interested in keeping Karabakh  as part of Azerbaijan in an indefinite status, and the Russian  peacekeeping forces would continue their mission, which would allow  Moscow to have a lever of influence on Baku," Bozoyan said.

However, Pashinyan nevertheless began his western negotiation track  and agreed on the recognition of territorial integrity. The political  scientist believes that the Prime Minister of Armenia did this  because he had obligations both to the West and to Turkish President  Recep Tayyip Erdogan. To the latter he owes the preservation of  power. In this context, referring to his personal conversation with  one of the high-ranking Russian officials, the political scientist  said that during the post-war opposition demonstrations, the  head of  the Turkish state, Erdogan, personally asked Russian President  Vladimir Putin to give Pashinyan a second chance. The fears of the  Russian side were related to the possibility of a new war if new  forces came to power in Armenia. And the resumption of hostilities  could lead to unwanted Russian-Turkish clashes. "The people of  Armenia were also frightened by the possibility of a new war if the  opposition came to power, and for this reason they voted in early  parliamentary elections not for Pashinyan's party, but against the  war," he said.

As a result, in the spring of 2022, Pashinyan opened the Overton's  Window and the idea of lowering the bar of Artsakh's status emerged,  which would allow to come to an agreement on peace with Azerbaijan.  That is, what Turkey and most Western countries demanded of him.

And by September last year, Pashinyan was almost ready to give  Karabakh to Azerbaijan, fearing at the same time the reaction of the  Armenian society, constantly dragging out this issue, which, in turn,  displeased Baku, which undertook a military provocation on September  11-12 last year, with intentions to put pressure on Yerevan.

Aliyev achieved his goal when in Prague on October 6, 2022, it was  officially announced that the parties recognized the territorial  integrity. This caused a certain shock in Moscow and in that part of  the Armenian society that understood what was happening. "The  Russians then answered this by saying that they cannot be greater  Armenians than the Armenians themselves," the political scientist  recalled, noting that Moscow's reaction was natural, since Pashinyan,  working on two tracks - Western and Russian - preferred to actually  go for major concessions in the West, which devalued the Russian  negotiation track, which Azerbaijan no longer needs as unpromising.

Having recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, the Prime  Minister of the Republic of Armenia, in fact, legitimized the  blockade of the Lachin corridor, accepting that both Nagorno-Karabakh  and Lachin are inalienable territories of Azerbaijan. The West really  needed this in order to further destroy the legitimate bases for the  presence of Russian peacekeeping forces in Karabakh. Thus, the West,  represented by the United States, Great Britain, and Israel, gets the  opportunity, firstly, to cut off Azerbaijan from the influence of  Russia, and, secondly, to realize its serious geostrategic goals by  creating a bridgehead against Iran from Azerbaijan.

According to Bozoyan, the West is currently conducting secret talks  with Pashinyan over the withdrawal of Armenia from the CSTO, the  withdrawal of 102 Russian military bases from Gyumri, and even the  denunciation of the Armenian-Russian mutual assistance treaty. The  West, at the same time, gives only verbal, and not institutional  guarantees of the existential security of the Armenians of  Nagorno-Karabakh and the security of Armenia, and only if the country  starts alliance relations with Turkey. To do so, Pashinyan demanded  the existence of some kind of international platform where all these  issues could be resolved. But Azerbaijan does not agree to this  either, realizing that the leadership of Armenia, like  Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia itself, are in a trap. These are the  current bitter realities. Therefore, the political scientist sees the  change of power in Armenia as the only way out of the current  dangerous impasse.