ArmInfo.Iranian-Azerbaijani relations have been complicated for 30 years, and they have developed along a sinusoidal pattern.
There are things that Iran does not like systematically. This was stated by Sergey Markedonov, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Leading Researcher at the the Euro-Atlantic Security Center of the MGIMO Institute for International Studies of the Russian Foreign Ministry, in Yerevan, at the conference :"Diplomacy - Alpha: Challenges of the Present and the Vision of the Future", in response to ArmInfo's question about the likelihood of a new escalation of the situation in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the possible involvement of Iran in it.
"There are things that Iran systematically dislikes, and this, in particular, concerns cooperation with Israel, a landmark agreement, economic cooperation with Western companies. And in general, an important point for Iran is that: the problems of the Caucasus should be solved by the neighboring countries, plus the countries of the region. There should be no foreign players here, be it Israel, theUS, etc.," Markedonov said.
At the same time, he urged to recall the situation two years ago, when the Azerbaijanis set up a checkpoint on the Goris-Kapan highway and Iranian truckers began to face problems. "At that time, every day they wrote about the war. I think there is some kind of devaluation going on. No need to shout "Wolves! Wolves!>, it ends badly. Iran and Azerbaijan have systemic problems, and they are connected, firstly, with international formats>, the Russian expert believes.
As for Azerbaijan, he continued, there are some concerns that the Iranian theocratic model will somehow enter Azerbaijan, where the majority of the population is Shiite.
Markedonov is convinced that this is an important deterrent. At the same time, he added that the idea of war is not popular in Azerbaijani society, especially in the southern part of the country.
"I rather think that there are anchors that will prevent the parties from war, although there is discontent," the expert said. <He does not want a change in borders, whether by the West, Russia or anyone else. At the same time, Markedonov stressed that Iran is a status-quo country, a classic conservative country. <It does not want a change in borders, whether by the West, Russia or anyone else. It did not recognize Kosovo, did not recognize Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, and new territories that from Ukraine became part of Russia.
Iran did not recognize Karabakh either. There are hopes that it is pro-Armenian. Iran is pro- Iranian, and it could not be otherwise. Iran was very skeptical about the NKR, although there were certain, informal relations with it, without recognizing its independence. It will also be skeptical if there is "Karabakhization" of the Armenian territories>, he noted. At the same time, the political scientist expressed his conviction that the likelihood of a new escalation in the region always remains. Regarding Russia's obligations under the tripartite agreement dated November 9, 2020, the expert expressed his conviction that the Russian side fulfills the declared obligations in the agreement. He agreed that it may not be completely, but there are circumstances for that. < There is a certain priority issue. This does not mean that the Caucasus has left the sphere of Russian interests, but now there are big stakes on Ukraine, more decisive issue than the Caucasian one >, he added. At the same time, the political scientist stressed that there are concerns that if a second front opens, it will not be in the interests of not only Russia, but primarily Armenia itself.