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 Thursday, January 26 2023 19:15
Marianna Mkrtchyan

Russia cannot be ousted from South Caucasus - Experts

Russia cannot be ousted from South Caucasus - Experts

ArmInfo. There is a possibility of Russia being forced out of the South Caucasus. It is  not high, unlikely, but still there. Sergei Markedonov, Leading  Researcher at the MGIMO Institute for International Studies,  Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of International Analytics stated on  January 26 during the Moscow-Yerevan video bridge on the topic:  "Actual Issues of Russian-Armenian Strategic Cooperation", referring  to the possibility of ousting the Russian Federation from the region.

However, according to him, the Russian side should work to nullify  such a possibility, so that there would not even be a possibility of  raising such an issue at all.

In turn, Political scientist, blogger Director of the Institute for  Strategic Studies and Forecasts of the Peoples' Friendship University  of Russia, Dmitry Egorchenkov, also agreed with his colleague that  nothing should be ruled out. However, he is convinced that this will  not happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. "If we make joint  efforts, even minimal ones, then this will not happen. And the fact  that Armenia is now more actively using additional opportunities,  whether it be the European target, or the American one, I do not see  anything wrong here. I agree with the general logic that all  opportunities should be used to achieve sustainable peace between  Armenia and Azerbaijan," the political scientist noted.

According to him, if Mr. Blinken (US Secretary of State - ed. note)  can be used for this situationally, then why not. "Another question  is not to miss what is usually included in the package of our Western  partners along with these positive things," the expert believes.

Referring to the accusations that "Russian soft power does not work,"  Egorchenkov noted that he also struggled with this for many years,  until he realized that it could not work, since it was not a Russian  concept. "Soft power does not work because it is an American concept  rather than a Russian one. And it works for the Americans, but  obviously not for the others, because that's basically how it was  designed from the start. Therefore, Armenian-Russian relations do not  need soft power, but something common. We can achieve real results by  joint efforts," he concluded.

In turn, political strategist Vigen Hakobyan theoretically considers  it possible to oust the Russian Federation from the region. "And  practically, under certain conditions. I mean, if the majority of the  population agrees with the alternative, that is, an increase in  Turkey's influence in the region," he said, in this vein, drawing  attention to the fact that there are political forces in Armenia, and  not opposition ones, who insist on very close and good neighborly  relations with Turkey.

According to him, the Overton window ("Window of Opportunity", ed.  note) , hich is now being talked about so much in Armenia, has  expanded so much that just a few years after the change of power in  the country, this is already considered possible. In this vein, he  pointed to the rapprochement of relations between Armenia and Europe.

"Processes are underway in Armenia, which show that there are forces  in the country that are not against replacing Russia with the same  West at this stage. It's another matter that so far the West is not  taking active steps in this direction," he concluded. 

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