ArmInfo.Ankara, Baku and Beijing are preparing for negotiations for integrating the Kars-Igdir-Nakhchivan railway project into China's 'The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)' (formerly known as One Belt One Road).
Thus, the transport-logistical architecture formed after the 44-day war will be clearly outlined, with Armenia to find itself in a transport ring, Doctor of Political Science Vahe Davtyan said in an interview with ArmInfo.
Immediately after the Baku-Tbilisi-Kar railway was put into operation in 2017, Ankara stated that the railway should be extended as far as Makhichevan. That route is being viewed as an important instrument for economic expansion of one of the Persian Gulf countries. The corridor is most likely to be extended as Nakhichevan-Meghri-Zangelan-Baku-Derbent, with its use to prove too expensive for the Armenian side.
The construction of this railway is estimated at $434mln, with its capacity estimated at 1mln tons. The return on investments is expected in 13 years. The investments are sure to influence freight rates, which will be uneconomic for Armenian forwarding companies, which are accustomed to Upper Lars and Georgian ports.
So in the new geoeconomic conditions Armenia has no chance to really benefit from the new transport corridors. Even if the Kars-Gyumri is re-operated - which is highly unlikely - the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars- Nakhichevan railway will reduce its (Kars-Gyumri railway's) transit capacity to a minimum. This is nothing but further transport blockade of Armenia, which is being presented to Armenia as a start to large- scale geoeconomic reforms in the region.
It is crystal clear that the Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance will spare no effort to apply the geopolitical method known as "the coils of anaconda" to Armenia - consistently restricting the enemy's economic development primarily to paralyze its transport system. Ankara and Baku will develop mutual economic protection, and Armenia has no political or professional resources to oppose it now.