ArmInfo. After the second Karabakh war Yerevan lost its informal status as patron of Nagorno-Karabakh's self-determination and guarantor of its security, Russian expert Sergey Markedonov stated as he commented on Armenian Premier Nikol Pashinyan's statements at his latest news conference.
The expert stated that one should not look for any special novelty in the January theses of the Prime Minister of Armenia. "He did not discover any previously unknown trends, but rather sharpened their perception (English has the verb "to sharpen", which is exactly what he did). Moreover, after the second Karabakh war, Yerevan lost the informal status of the patron of self-determination Nagorno-Karabakh and the guarantor of its security. Throughout the past year, Pashinyan, as well as his closest associates Armen Grigoryan and Ararat Mirzoyan, have publicly emphasized that Russian peacekeepers are responsible for the situation in Artsakh. In 2022, the so-called Alma-Ata formula was updated, then there is Yerevan's readiness to recognize the Republic of Armenia within the borders of the Armenian SSR. Moreover, this item was included in the text of the tripartite Sochi pressure of October 31, 2022," he said.
At the same time, he drew attention to the fact that the approaches of Moscow and Yerevan are systemically different, the personality factor is secondary here. Markedonov noted that the question here is not who is bad, but who is good (both the Russian Federation and Armenia have their fair reasons).
"The problem is different assessments of the situation and different expectations. Russia, bound by the special military operation in Ukraine and deepening confrontation with the West, here now depends more on the Ankara-Baku tandem. Even the accession of Armenia to the Union State of the Russian Federation and Belarus would not cancel this fact.
At the same time, Armenia, obviously, would like a clearer position of Moscow and the CSTO. Simply because of the political masses, any integration structure with the participation of the Russian Federation is perceived as Russian. But today Moscow cannot, due to the reasons described above, clearly and unambiguously "decide" in favor of Armenia. And even more so her CSTO allies. But after all, Yerevan cannot simply stand in a detached pose and humbly wait for its fate. Society puts pressure on Pashinyan with demands to do at least something, but at the same time it is no longer ready for a new large-scale confrontation with Azerbaijan. As a result, emotions prevail, tactics take precedence over strategy," the Russian expert said.
The Azerbaijani leader openly stated his discontent with Armenia's policy of protracting a peaceful settlement. Baku is naturally insisting on its terms, and Pashinyan cannot disregard its intentions - even if he were triply pro-Russian and quadruply pro-Western," Mr Markedonov said.
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