ArmInfo. Azerbaijan is exerting powerful pressure on Armenia and the NKR, and thus more and more exploring , checking the power of Russian peacekeepers, advancing its interests and achieving their effectiveness step by step, director of the Caucasus Institute, political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan told Civil.net in an interview.
According to the political scientist, the blocking of the Lachin corridor by the so-called "environmental activists" and the preparation of prerequisites for a humanitarian catastrophe in Artsakh are for the same reasons as the September military aggression against Armenia or discursive pressure on the so-called final solution to the Karabakh problem, but more sophisticated form. According to Iskandaryan, sooner or later, Karabakh and Armenia would have faced such actions, since these are not some kind of tactical steps, but a strategic line aimed at maximizing their own capabilities that go beyond the framework of trilateral agreements signed after the 44-day Karabakh war.
According to the political scientist, the only limiter for Azerbaijan in this sense is the Russian reaction, which Baku thus periodically tests and sees that this reaction is weak and inadequate in its strength and, as a result, is not capable of interrupting such a strategic behavioral line. And Baku's strategy, according to the expert, is clear : to get extraterritorial status for the so-called Zangezur corridor and, possibly, joint control over the Lachin corridor.
As for the reaction of the West, of course there is a reaction, but it is naturally limited to political and diplomatic tools in the form of statements and notes, and possibly closed forms of diplomatic influence. But the problem is that this toolkit is unable to seriously influence Baku's strategy.
According to the expert, Azerbaijan considers that time is against it and wants to solve all its problems as soon as possible . Because it fears that something may change in the great geopolitics of the region.
The political scientist considers it frivolous to wait for any international sanctions against Baku for causing a humanitarian crisis, because when we say Azerbaijan today, we mean Turkey, and today it is extremely valuable both for the West and for Russia. Brussels and Washington need Ankara more than vice versa. Ankara supports Baku 100 percent. This is rational and justified from the point of view of penetration and strengthening of Turkey's positions in the South Caucasus.
"Russia is a great power and, with its weight, performs certain functions in the region. But what are these functions? It is definitely not going to attack Azerbaijan from Dagestani side. I think that about the current situation, Russia is conducting an active negotiation process, which will most likely lead to the unblocking of the corridor, but the question is what Azerbaijan will demand for this.
In this context, the political scientist reminded that Russia now has many other concerns, "it has different optics". In this perspective, the "Azerbaijan-Turkey" connection is clearly visible, and Russia has a whole mosaic of relations with Turkey. These are the Crimean problem, the Ukrainian problem, the Syrian problem, the creation of a gas hub, the problems of gray exports and parallel imports, communication channels with the Western world. "Karabakh is only a piece of this puzzle, which, as we see, is much more extensive," Iskandaryan noted. In order for Armenia to be able to oppose this strategy of Azerbaijan, it should have such an opportunity, in terms of the state and competencies of the state apparatus, of another higher degree of subjectivity. , the political scientist said, emphasizing that The idea that we will leave the problem to the Russian peacekeepers and deal with internal Armenian problems is a wrong idea and wrong from the beginning.
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