ArmInfo.Any wars and armed conflicts end up in brokered talks, Alexander Tsinker, President of the International Expert Center for Electoral Systems (ICES), stated as he commented on the efforts a number of nations are exerting to broker a rapprochement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Mediation is one of the most effective means of preventing and settling conflicts.
He admits that mediation is professional activity requiring special knowledge and experience. Moreover, mediators should be neutral and independent actors assisting in settling disputes, Mr Tsinker said. This is the mediation procedures described in the UN and OSCE documents.
As to practice, the expert referred to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Two quartets and two groups are now seeking a settlement of the protracted conflict: the first is Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, Turkey; the second is Azerbaijan, Armenia, EU and Turkey; the third is Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia and the fourth is Azerbaijan, Armenia and the EU.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are clearly conflicting parties. The rest is not quite logical.
According to Mr Tsinker, Russia is posing as mediator equally distant from the conflicting parties. But it has its own interests in the region and its troops are deployed in the conflict zone. Moreover, Russia is interested in business ties with Turkey. And it must be its interests in the South Caucasus that are the reason why none of the parties is trusting it, Mr Tsinker said.
Turkey, in turn, is seeking the role of regional leader. Azerbaijan and Turkey have established a politico- strategic alliance and military partnership following the "one nation, two states" principle. On the other hand, Armenia and Turkey lack not only mutual trust, but also diplomatic relations. They only have unsolved problems, and Turkey can by no means be considered a neutral mediator.
As regards the EU, it made a traditional call for ending hostilities, without even condemning Azerbaijani invasion of Armenia's sovereign territory this September. That was to be expected as the EU hopes Azerbaijan will be an alternative energy supplier to replace Russia. So most of the EU member-states would not like to spoil their relations with Aliyev's regime. Therefore, the EU leadership's top priority is establishing peace in the South Caucasus as soon as possible to set to expanding energy resources transit later, Mr Tsinker said.
Even the statements by the French president and U.S. Senators condemning Azerbaijan's actions remain mere words.
Along with Russia, the US and France are OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs. So President Ilham Aliyev, who buried the Minsk Group, and Russian FM Sergey Lavrov, who stated that the Minsk Group had been dissolved on the initiative of the USA and France, may be right, Mr Tsinker says.
Many questions with the problem remaining unsolved. Moreover, as the Armenia-Azerbaijani peace talks progress, Armenia's problem is getting more serious. The aforementioned mediators, out of their own strategic interests, are urging Armenia's leadership to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, which could cause bring about a change of power inside Armenia, which, in turn, is sure to cause an escalation in the South Caucasus, Mr Tsinker said.