Expert: Azerbaijan is quite capable of taking advantage of the fact  that Russia is currently busy with Ukraine

ArmInfo. Azerbaijan is quite capable of taking advantage of the fact that Russia is currently busy with Ukraine. Mikhail Aleksandrov, the leading expert of the MGIMO's  Center for Military-Political Studies expressed a similar opinion to  ArmInfo.

"Moscow's hands are completely tied by a special military operation  and, seeking to squeeze everything out of this situation, Baku is  well aware that Moscow is unlikely to want to transfer a large  military contingent to Karabakh if a big war starts there," he said.

According to Aleksandrov, Baku is capable of any step by its desire  to show the world that the real danger today is Armenia, and not  Azerbaijan. The main thing is that the Russian Federation should not  be distracted by the Ukrainian special operation in Karabakh.  In  this light, the expert forecasts Baku's accusations against Yerevan  of violating the Trilateral Statement of November 9, 2020, which will  be a pretext for initiating hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In the event of such a scenario, given the small number of Russian  peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh, according to his forecasts, the  Russian servicemen, will not be able to resist the Azerbaijani army.  As a result, Azerbaijan will be able to block the peacekeepers and  capture the entire Karabakh.

Commenting on the possible reaction of Armenia to such a development  of events, Aleksandrov noted that, having lost its military  potential, Armenia is not able to fight for Karabakh. The expert  comes to the conclusion that "Armenians do not want to return to the  state of war and are ready to surrender Karabakh for the sake of a  peaceful life and are not ready for war."

"Against the background of the lack of readiness to defend Karabakh,  Yerevan, apparently, expects that Russia will do so. However, given  the situation in Ukraine, Russia is unlikely to be able to do this.   Accordingly, in the event of large-scale hostilities by Azerbaijan,  the outcome of the situation will depend only on Armenia. And if Baku  is convinced that, apart from the Karabakh people themselves, no one  will protect Karabakh from an attack, the future consequences may  turn out to be very deplorable for Armenia itself," Aleksandrov  summed up.