Turkish President Recep Erdogan could well attempt to destabilize  South Caucasus as electoral strategy - Ruben Safrastyan

ArmInfo.Turkish President Recep Erdogan could well attempt to destabilize the South Caucasus to consolidate his positions before the 2023 elections, Professor Ruben  Safrastyan said in an interview with ArmInfo. 

He does not rule out foreign policy gambling to distract public  attention from the grave socio-economic situation in Turkey, which  would enable Turkey to try to destabilize the situation in the  Caucasus by means of Azerbaijan, purely for domestic political gain. 

"It should be noted at this point that the recent polls show the  ruling Justice and Development Party second for the first time over  two decades, surrendering the top place to the Kemalist Republican  People's Party.  However, other polls show Erdogan as the most  popular Turkish politician, who, according to Turkish and foreign  experts, is most likely to win the run-off," Mr Safrastyan said. 

The rumors have been circulating in Turkey over the last year about   the Turkish president's intention to hold an early presidential   election this November. This June, however, Erdogan stated once again   that no early presidential or parliamentary elections would be held   in the country, and the elections would take place in June 2023.   Recep Erdogan's traditional rival, the Republican People's Party, is  claiming that by means of early elections the Turkish president is  seeking to identify his falling rating, with all the recent polls  being evidence thereof. 

Anyway, the sad socio-economic and financial situation in Turkey and  widespread popular discontent is sure to affect the rating of Recep  Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party. And any realistic  forecasts are too early to make given the ruling party's shaky  positions in confronting a six-party opposition coalition. 

"I think that a victory of the Republican People's Party over Erdogan  would bring about changes in Turkey's policy toward Armenia, as that  state's foreign policy would be more predictable and more coordinated  with the West - the USA and NATO. However, I do not expect any  radical changes in Turkey's regional policy and its policy toward  Armenia," Mr Safrastyan said.