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 Thursday, May 26 2022 13:42
David Stepanyan

Forecast: Russia will not give up its positions in the South Caucasus

Forecast: Russia will not give up its positions in the South Caucasus

ArmInfo.Despite the current involvement in Ukrainian affairs, Russia, without a doubt, is not going to and will not easily cede its own positions in the South  Caucasus to the West. International expert Suren Sargsyan expressed a  similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Even a possible tactical retreat of Moscow does not mean its final  withdrawal from the region. I think that this is well understood in  the West as well. Brussels and Washington realize that the current  Moscow's concessions as a result of their consolidated pressure will  be accompanied by attempts to increase involvement in Caucasian  affairs in the future," the expert forecasts.

According to Sargsyan, the activation of the processes of settlement  of the Armenian-Azerbaijani developments in Brussels, takes place in  the conditions of the active assistance of Washington. And Brussels,  in fact, is a process to circumvent the Minsk process, due to its  current incapacity. The main reason for this is the lack of consensus  between the United States and France on the one hand and the Russian  Federation on the other. The latter, in his opinion, gives rise to  the need to oust the Russian Federation from the negotiations by  creating a new negotiating format, and not ousting the Russian  Federation from the existing format.

According to the expert, the abovementioned geopolitical processes  are unfolding at an amazing speed, in which, according to his  estimates, many of their direct participants are interested. First of  all, Baku's interests require it. The collective West is striving to  minimise Russian influence in the region as soon as possible, using  the opportunities that are available so far for this, in particular,  Ukraine.

"This is the strategy of Brussels and Washington, through which they  are trying, if not to completely oust Russia from the South Caucasus,  then at least minimise its presence, using Moscow's involvement in  Ukrainian affairs. And it seems that Armenia is also showing urgency  in all these processes and the whole question is whether Yerevan does  it on its own or under pressure. And given the serious pressure on  Armenia by almost all the players, I do not rule out the second  version at all," the international specialist summed up.

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