ArmInfo.Taking into account the absence of any objective reasons for Baku to keep the Armenian population of Artsakh in Artsakh, I personally doubt the possibility of signing a peace treaty with Yerevan. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by a historical sociologist, publicist, and professor at the New York University at Abu Dhabi Georgi Derluguian.
"Taking into account the obviousness of Baku's intentions, the goal of Yerevan, the goal of all Armenians should be to oppose these plans through diplomacy, politics, propaganda, and, if necessary, the army and the talks, in particular the Yerevan talks on a peace agreement with Baku, probably refer to this. I think they are part of a strategy to drag out the negotiations, the process as a whole, with the ultimate goal of avoiding a direct military conflict," he stressed.
In the professor's opinion, Europe, in principle, shares this approach of Yerevan. And it is the EU's desire to avoid any process in the South Caucasus as a whole that Brussels, in its turn, is also interested in long negotiations, delaying the process. According to Derluguian's forecasts, the conflict around Artsakh may become part of the overall geopolitical settlement package in a number of regions, but only after the Ukrainian settlement, or, more precisely, Moscow's renunciation of its gains in Ukraine.
Assuming that the development of these settlement packages is already underway, Derluguian considers delaying time in order to avoid making specific decisions on Artsakh the most rational strategy for Armenia, at least for the next year. Another important background factor in Brussels' policy in the Caucasus, the professor considers the fear of losing Azerbaijan as a supplier of oil and gas in the face of a growing need to avoid Russian gas in order to increase pressure on Moscow.
"Nevertheless, given the kleptocratic clan nature of the Aliyev regime, it will be quite easy to impose sanctions on him, first of all, due to the fact that against the backdrop of Ukraine, public opinion in the West has become much more active than a couple more months ago. And politicians are forced to take this into account and follow this. This fact in a certain way, in turn, ties the hands of the Baku regime in the Armenian direction. Energy carriers are important, but in response to any actions of Aliyev that will cause horror in Europe, its leaders will simply have to take actions against Azerbaijan, as they did against the Russian Federation," Derlugyan summed up.