Luys Foundation: SIPRI data on Armenia`s military spending is  illogical

ArmInfo.In recent days, the pro-government media, telegram channels and some members of the ruling party, citing the database of the Stockholm Institute (SIPRI),  have been spreading the thesis that allegedly more weapons were bought during the four years of the current government,  than during  the 10 years of the rule of the second and third presidents.

In the message received by ArmInfo from the Luys Foundation, was the  analysis of the data published on the SIPRI portal carried out.

"It should be noted that the 'Trend Indicator Value' (TIV) of arms  imports and exports is represented by a unit developed according to  the SIPRI methodology, which reflects not the price of weapons, but  their value. Therefore, it cannot be unequivocally stated that in  terms of price it coincides with the dollar value of weapons. Even if  we assume that these units correspond to the dollar value of weapons,  a very interesting picture will emerge.  According to SIPRI, in  2009-2018 Armenia imported $247 million worth of weapons, of which  only $110 million was in 2016. It turns out that Armenia in 2011-2015  imported weapons for only $21 million, which is ridiculous, given  that according to the same SIPRI, in 2018, compared to 2007,  Armenia's defense spending increased by about 83%, from $280 million  to $513 million.

Based on SIPRI data, it turns out that before the 44-day war, in  2018-2020, out of the $248 million spent, 141-211 million or 57-85%  turned out to be ineffective (120-190 million were allocated for to  known "SU" systems, 21 million for "OSA-AK" systems). In general, out  of 280 million dollars spent in 2018-2021, 120-190 million dollars or  43-68% were spent on "Su" systems.

It is also clear that the bulk of the $248 million deliveries in 2019  are those provided under the $200+$100 million arms loan signed with  Russia in 2015-2017, part of which was simply delivered in 2019.

In addition to credit funds, arms imports continued at the expense of  defense spending. As a result, it turns out that, in fact, the RA  Armed Forces began to acquire an unprecedented amount of weapons in  2015-2017 within the framework of a loan signed with Russia and by  increasing defense spending.

According to SIPRI, in 1991-2021, Armenia imported only $948 million  worth of weapons, while Azerbaijani President Aliyev says in almost  every speech that they destroyed $4-5 billion worth of weapons during  the war, and according to expert estimates, armaments losses of the  Armenian side are estimated at 2-3 billion dollars.

According to SIPRI, after the 44-day war, Azerbaijan increased its  military spending to $2.7 billion in 2021, about 21% more than $2.2  billion in 2020 and about 46% more than in 2019. At the same time,  Armenia reduced military spending to $619 million in 2021, which is  about 2% less than in 2020 and 5% less than in 2019.

This is an illogical picture, since it turns out that after a  devastating war, Armenia reduces the burden of its military spending,  and Azerbaijan, being the winner, having captured a huge amount of  Armenian military equipment, nevertheless increases its spending,"  the Foundation's publication says.

It should be noted that the expenditures of the state budget of  Armenia in January-February 2022 amounted to 231.2 billion drams,  which is 47.6% of the adjusted figure for the first quarter. At the  same time, 16.4% or 38 billion drams out of the indicated 231.2  billion drams was directed to cover the costs of the defense sector,  which is 45.1% of the adjusted figure for the first quarter.  It  should be noted that according to the RA Law "On the State Budget for  2022", Armenia's GDP will amount to 7% by the end of the year (the  other day, the Central Bank and the IMF adjusted their forecast to  1.6%, Fitch Ratings - to 1.3% - ed. note). Budget revenues in 2022  will amount to 1 trillion 947.8 billion drams (24.7% of GDP) or 17.5%  (289 billion drams) more than in 2021, expenditures - 2 trillion 184  billion drams or 27.7% GDP (184 billion drams more than the figure  adjusted for the current year and 334 billion drams more than the  approved figure for 2021), and the state budget deficit is 236.2  billion drams.  At the same time, current expenditures will amount to  23.2% of GDP or 1 trillion 843 billion drams (81 billion drams (4.6%)  more than the indicator set for 2021), and capital expenditures will  amount to 352 billion drams or 4.5% of GDP. At the same time, the  expenditures of the defense sector of Armenia this year will increase  by about 11%, or by 33 billion drams, amounting to more than 345.4  billion drams (about 15.8% of the expenditure part of the state  budget).