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 Tuesday, April 12 2022 11:48
David Stepanyan

Analyst: Turkey is an unconditional part of the geopolitical equation  of the West to reduce Russia`s influence in the South Caucasus

Analyst: Turkey is an unconditional part of the geopolitical equation  of the West to reduce Russia`s influence in the South Caucasus

ArmInfo.Turkey, of course, is part of the geopolitical equation of the West, in order to, if not to oust, then at least reduce Russia's influence in the South Caucasus.  Leading Russian analyst, editor-in-chief at Russia in Global Affairs  journal Fyodor Lukyanov expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"The current desire of the United States to normalize the current,  not the best relations with Ankara leads to a similar conclusion. The  latter is necessary for the United States and the EU, among other  things, in order to successfully complete the process that has  already begun to seize the initiative in the South Caucasus from the  hands of Moscow. Meanwhile, not only the Russian Federation, but also  Turkey has significant influence in the region. Accordingly, the West  today needs, if not the participation, then the loyalty of Ankara in  relation to this process," he stressed. According to the analyst, at  this stage, the trajectory along which these processes proceed and  develop is visible even to the naked eye, and today we can record an  extremely high degree of their movement, respectively, instability.  Which is primarily due to and depends on the outcome of the war in  Ukraine, moreover, for all active and passive participants in this  process.

Returning to Turkey's role in the processes in the South Caucasus,  Lukyanov conditioned its preservation and periodic increase by  Ankara's extraordinary foreign policy and diplomatic flexibility. The  latter, according to his estimates, manifests itself both in relation  to the United States and in relation to Russia.  With whom Turkey  manages to maintain fairly good relations even in the current  situation in Ukraine and around Ukraine. And this is in conditions  when not only the United States and the West, but also the whole  world is trying to increase the list of countries hostile to the  Russian Federation.

In this light, the analyst characterized the agreement reached on  April 6 in Brussels by the leaders of Armenia, the EU and Azerbaijan  on the establishment of a commission on the delimitation of the  border between Armenia and Azerbaijan as an unconditional part of the  West's activity in the eastern direction.  According to Lukyanov, as  of today the West is already openly claiming the role that it began  to play in the South Caucasus following the results of the 44-day war  of the Russian Federation.

"It is clear that appetites and intentions are one thing, but real  steps are quite another. In this light, the EU needs to make Yerevan  and Baku offers they can't refuse. This will make it possible to move  on to the next stage after the Brussels one in the direction of  moving towards a peace treaty. Nevertheless, if this process is  delayed, the current stage of Western interference in Caucasian  affairs may end in a complete fiasco. "In other words, I won't even  try to forecast the success of Charles Michel's conditional mission  at present, including because of the unpredictability, fraught with  many unresolved issues and contradictions of the Karabakh settlement  and, of course, the situation around Ukraine, which is far from being  resolved," the analyst summed up. 

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