ArmInfo. The likelihood of a major war between Armenia and Azerbaijan today and in the foreseeable future is significantly lower than before September 27, 2020. And the regular meeting held in Brussels yesterday, in the Michel-Pashinyan-Aliyev format is another confirmation of this. Associate Expert of the Armenian Institute of International Relations and Security David Stepanyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
Following the talks between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and European Council President Charles Michel in Brussels on April 6, an agreement was reached to establish a bilateral commission on the delimitation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan by the end of April. The trilateral talks in Brussels were preceded by separate meetings between the head of the European Council and the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
"The very results of the next round of Brussels talks under the auspices of the European Union detroy another myth, imposed from the outside, and intensively spread in the Armenian society about the threat of an imminent and inevitable war. We understand why this myth is spreading so aggressively from Baku, but for what reasons it is being spread by some circles in Armenia and Artsakh - a separate and rather interesting question," he stressed.
At the same time, the analyst noted, that Armenia and Artsakh need to prepare for the war and always be ready. Especially given the rapidly changing geopolitical realities and transformations in international relations and global politics. "There may be war. This scenario can never be ruled out. But today's realities - the same calls to Yerevan and Baku made by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the eve of the Brussels meeting of the leaders of the EU, Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as its results, at least indicate the absence of any prerequisites for large-scale hostilities in the short-medium term," he stressed.
According to Stepanyan, Blinken's calls to Pashinyan and Aliyev were a reflection of Washington's awareness that Brussels could not give the conflicting parties, primarily Aliyev, greater motivation for constructiveness and mutual concessions alone, without the United States and Russia, especially in the context of Moscow's actual withdrawal from the background of the settlement, in all likelihood, temporary.
In the expert's opinion, this is evidenced by the absence of calls from French President Macron and President of the European Council Michel to Moscow. While on the eve of the first meeting in the Michel-Pashinyan-Aliyev format, there were similar calls. According to Stepanyan, the latter is due to the current relations between the West and Russia, conditioned by the Ukrainian factor. "The main conclusion that seems to be possible for Armenia from all this is the possibility of negotiating without regard to the Azerbaijani blackmail of the threat of war. Negotiations to define borders, normalize relations with Azerbaijan, negotiations that allow postponing the issue of determining the status of Artsakh until better times Whether Yerevan and Stepanakert will take advantage of this opportunity, only time will show," the expert summed up.
An agreement on the establishment of the commission was reached in Brussels in accordance with the statement adopted on November 26, 2021 in Sochi. The commission will also deal with issues of ensuring security and stability along the entire perimeter of the border. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan instructed the foreign ministers to begin work on preparing peace talks. "The parties have decided to start a clear process to conclude a peace treaty. We also agreed to form a working group - a joint commission. I hope that in the coming weeks we will create a stable connection for contacts. I do not underestimate the challenges and difficulties that both sides have, but I feel that there is a common desire to move forward. I am sure that today we have taken an important step. The process has started today," European Council President Charles Michel told reporters after the talks.