ArmInfo.Regardless of all the accompanying circumstances, threats, challenges to the national security of Armenia and Artsakh, regardless of the current geopolitical circumstances, it should be understood that another Azerbaijani-Turkish attack will have serious consequences. Independent analyst Saro Saroyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"The consequences are due to the factual mandate of the remaining Armenian territories of Artsakh to Moscow and its peacekeepers. Accordingly, Moscow will bear responsibility for the war. The Russian Federation assumed a peacekeeping mandate with all the international obligations, respectively, as a superpower it is Moscow, who is responsible for preventing war in this territory, Moscow is responsible for the security of the people of Artsakh to the rest of the world," he stressed.
In this light, the analyst stressed that, among other things, it is the peacekeeping mandate of the Russian Federation that prevents Azerbaijan from carrying out genocidal actions and policies against the Artsakh people, which fall under the jurisdiction of the Hague Tribunal. And in case of not being able to guarantee the prevention of such genocidal acts, the Russian Federation automatically becomes a participant in them, a participant in ethnic cleansing, about which even the RA Prime Minister Pashinyan unexpectedly spoke recently. It should be noted that in the event of ethnic cleansing, it would have the effect of a powerful geopolitical blow to Russia as a superpower.
According to Saroyan, such circumstances will also play a role in the prospect of starting a war against Armenia, especially given Armenia's membership in the CSTO. In his opinion, even Moscow's indifference to the defense of Armenia does not cancel its international obligations to Yerevan, which is fraught with serious consequences for the Russian Federation and the fall of its image in the event of such a scenario.
"The threat to the existence of the Armenian nation is due to the genocidal policies of specific states. And the international community has not been able to resolve the issue of the Armenian Genocide to this day and cannot get out of its burden. So, the very prospect of committing a second genocide against the Armenian people will automatically become a problem for the international community in general and for the superpowers in particular. It is clear that such a genocide against the same Armenian ethnos can be committed only with their tacit consent. And given the absence of such a precedent in the world, we must put our own phobias aside and finally, to understand that it will not be very easy for the Turks and Azerbaijanis to carry out the second genocide, let's say," he is convinced. According to Saroyan, such realities and perspectives allow Armenians to stop the long-term game of silence because of their own phobias.And, finally, start communicating with the world from completely different positions: Positions based on real politics, and not artificial phobias imposed from outside, positions that allow us to influence a particular state and the international community as a whole. At least in terms of the interests of the Armenians.