Forecast: It will not be easy for the Turks and Azerbaijanis to carry  out the second Armenian genocide

ArmInfo.Regardless of all the accompanying circumstances, threats, challenges to the national security of Armenia and Artsakh, regardless of the current  geopolitical circumstances, it should be understood that another  Azerbaijani-Turkish attack will have serious consequences.  Independent analyst Saro Saroyan expressed a similar opinion to  ArmInfo.

 "The consequences are due to the factual mandate of the  remaining Armenian territories of Artsakh to Moscow and its  peacekeepers. Accordingly, Moscow will bear responsibility for the  war.  The Russian Federation assumed a peacekeeping mandate with all  the international obligations, respectively, as a superpower it is  Moscow, who is responsible for preventing war in this territory,  Moscow is responsible for the security of the people of Artsakh to  the rest of the world," he stressed.

In this light, the analyst stressed that, among other things, it is  the peacekeeping mandate of the Russian Federation that prevents  Azerbaijan from carrying out genocidal actions and policies against  the Artsakh people, which fall under the jurisdiction of the Hague  Tribunal. And in case of not being able to guarantee the prevention  of such genocidal acts, the Russian Federation automatically becomes  a participant in them, a participant in ethnic cleansing, about which  even the RA Prime Minister Pashinyan unexpectedly spoke recently. It  should be noted that in the event of ethnic cleansing, it would have  the effect of a powerful geopolitical blow to Russia as a superpower.

According to Saroyan, such circumstances will also play a role in the  prospect of starting a war against Armenia, especially given  Armenia's membership in the CSTO. In his opinion, even Moscow's  indifference to the defense of Armenia does not cancel its  international obligations to Yerevan, which is fraught with serious  consequences for the Russian Federation and the fall of its image in  the event of such a scenario.

"The threat to the existence of the Armenian nation is due to the  genocidal policies of specific states. And the international  community has not been able to resolve the issue of the Armenian  Genocide to this day and cannot get out of its burden. So, the very  prospect of committing a second genocide against the Armenian people  will automatically become a problem for the international community  in general and for the superpowers in particular.  It is clear that  such a genocide against the same Armenian ethnos can be committed  only with their tacit consent. And given the absence of such a  precedent in the world, we must put our own phobias aside and  finally, to understand that it will not be very easy for the Turks  and Azerbaijanis to carry out the second genocide, let's say," he is  convinced.  According to Saroyan, such realities and perspectives  allow Armenians to stop the long-term game of silence because of  their own phobias.And, finally, start communicating with the world  from completely different positions: Positions based on real  politics, and not artificial phobias imposed from outside, positions  that allow us to influence a particular state and the international  community as a whole. At least in terms of the interests of the  Armenians.