Forecast: If Moscow is not forced to choose, it will continue to  balance between Baku and Yerevan

ArmInfo. Despite the fact that the current crisis around Nagorno- Karabakh is clearly not provoked by the situation in Ukraine, and the settlement of this conflict will be  within its own logic, it would be wrong to completely deny the  influence of the Ukrainian factor in all this.  Sergei Markedonov,   Leading Researcher at the MGIMO Institute for International Studies,  Editor- in-Chief of the Journal of International Analytic told  Arminfo

"The Western informational narrative, one way or another, has a huge  resource of influence beyond the US and Europe as well. Accordingly,  the latest assessments of the campaign in Ukraine may well contribute  to the formation of interpretations, according to which Moscow no  longer has time for Transcaucasia. The latter may well lead,  moreover, it is already leading to Baku's attempts to push back the  "red lines," he stressed.

Noting the growing criticism of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan  regarding the actions of the Russian Federation in Karabakh, the  analyst expressed an opinion that similar criticism could be heard in  Yerevan as well. In this light, he singled out the demands voiced by  Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan during his last conversation with  Russian President Putin for greater toughness of peacekeepers against  the Azerbaijani military. As well as the need to investigate the  actions of the Russian military, which allowed the advancement of  Azerbaijanis in the zone of responsibility of the Russian military.

According to Markedonov, all these events and statements by the  parties to the conflict do not change geopolitical realities. The  West is still not ready to discriminate against the actions of the  Russian Federation in Karabakh, following the example of actions in  Ukraine, although the same American and French politicians are doing  this in relation to Baku's latest actions in Karabakh. This allows us  to state that what is allowed to Kiev will not necessarily be allowed  to Baku, which is not at all due to sympathies or antipathies towards  Russia.

According to the analyst's forecasts, another reality that is  interesting from the point of view of prospects is the possibility of  a tough reaction from Moscow in the event of attempts to oust it from  areas of interest to it. And this is against the background of the  traditional desire of the Russian Federation to avoid breaking the  status quo in conflict regions as much as possible. In this light, he  recalled that Moscow recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia after four  years of unfreezing these conflicts as well asthe LPR and DPR after  eight years of futile negotiations around the Minsk agreements.  

"And finally, the last but by no means least important circumstance.  The lack of any claims from all sides to the quality of the Russian  peacekeeping mission in Karabakh leaves no alternative to it at all.   The West, ready for total containment of Russia in Karabakh, does not  offer anything. The latter means that Moscow, avoiding a hard choice,  will continue the policy of careful balancing between Baku and  Yerevan as a conflict moderator until, as in other "hot spots" of the  former USSR, this choice is not imposed on it, leaving no elementary  room for maneuvering. That is why today it is extremely important not  to cross the line in Karabakh separating crisis management from  conflict defrosting," Markedonov summed up.