Russia cannot be forced into leaving South Caucasus, experts says

ArmInfo.The South Caucasus is an example allowing a claim that it is not only economic warfare the West is conducting against Russia. All the spheres of Russian  influence are under attack, Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of  Russia in Global Affairs, said in an interview with ArmInfo.  

"Armenia's application to the OSCE Minsk Group over Azerbaijan's  proposals, France's intensified efforts in the South Caucasus,  [Armenian Prime Minister Nikol] Pashinyan's visit to Paris, the talks  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and French Foreign Minister  [Jean-Yves Le Drian] had with the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders -  all that might well be expected. We are perfectly aware of the West  seeking to weaken Russia in all the possible ways. In this context,  they are attempting to undertake an initiative to find a political  solution to the problems in the South Caucasus as well," Mr Lukyanov  said. 

Moscow is realizing and analyzing this, behaving with assurance,  primarily in virtue of a need to cause the West to accelerate its  actions in the South Caucasus as a guarantee of success. However,  prompt actions are not a priority of the West's policy. Mr Lukyanov  points out a link between the prospects of the end of war in Ukraine  and the Caucasus-related prospects and rules out the possibility of  neutralizing Russia's influence in the South Caucasus, of its  secession from the OSCE Minsk Group and leaving the region in the  foreseeable future. 

The West is seeking to gain a foothold not only in Ukraine, but also  in the other spheres of Russia's influence, with the South Caucasus  being a priority and strategically most important region, with its  great potential of geoeconomic development in the context of  infrastructure project implementation. This is one of the reasons for  the geopolitical rivalry for the region, with the West getting deeper  involved in it. 

"By losing the 44-day war, which, in fact, incapacitated the OSCE  Minsk Group, the West 'lost' its involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh  peace process and is now seeking to regain its positions by  establishing cooperation with Armenia and Azerbaijan. But the real  state of affairs, including as a result of the 44-day war, is not so  easy to ignore. Russia is exercising influence in the region and has  relations with the regional states, and neutralizing it is not an  easy task. The USA and the EU are relying on the war in Ukraine,  seeking to take advantage of it. But war is temporary. So I do not  think their reckoning is relevant, much less feasible," Mr Fyodor  Lukyanov.