Friday, March 11 2022 12:10

ArmInfo. In analyzing Turkey's recent steps, one should consider Turks' historically caused serious attitude to the Russian threat, Professor Ruben Safrastyan said in an  interview with ArmInfo. 

"In this context, Turkey will take radical anti-Russian steps only  after it is convinced of Russia's weakness in the wake of the Ukraine  developments. I do not yet see Russia is growing weak. But we should  fully realize that Turkey is acting by means of Azerbaijan in the  South Caucasus this is the cause of all the recent Azerbaijani  provocations along the Armenian and Artsakh borders. And I think the  provocations will obviously continue," he said.  

The reason for Turkey's support to Azerbaijan is Turkey using that  state in accomplishing its tasks in the region, namely, taking  advantage of the results of the 44-day war to establish its hegemony  in the region, and Turkey is not at all concealing it. Given the fact  that the Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh are the first barrier to  Turkey's expansion plans, Mr Safrastyan does not rule out Azerbaijani  provocations against the Russian peacekeepers to force them into  leaving the Republic of Artsakh. 

After the Moscow declaration was signed, Russia has not considered  its alliance with Armenia identical to that with Azerbaijan. In  contrast to the real politico-military and strategic alliance with  Armenia, the motive behind the document signed with Azerbaijan is  more self-interest, which is far from the real level of the  Russian-Azerbaijani relations. 

"In this context, I believe Aliyev signed the declaration with Russia  under Moscow's pressure, with Ankara's approval. Given the contacts  between the Azerbaijani and Russian elites, it became a platform of  cooperation in the Russian-Turkish confrontation. Russia is not at  all interested in destabilized South Caucasus against the backdrop of  the Ukraine crisis, and is seeking to prevent Turkey from  strengthening its positions by, among other things, forcing Baku into  signing a document that would act as a check on Ankara. I do not  think it will last long. At some moment, egged on by Ankara, Baku  will start making steps in conflict with the declaration signed with  Moscow," Mr Safrastyan said.