ArmInfo. Armenia will not face any security threats unless the Russian-Turkish relations deteriorate, the expert in Turkic studies Victor Nadein-Raevskii said in an interview with ArmInfo and noted he does not see any such trends now.
"At present, Russia is acting with confidence independently of Turkey, whereas Turkey is pursuing a much more cautious policy. Evidence thereof is particularly Turkey proposing its mediation in the negotiations and humanitarian aid. It should be stressed that the Russian-Turkish relations are to a great extent dependent on the personal relations between Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan," he said.
Despite their opposite positions on Syria, the Crimea, Nagorno-Karabakh and, now, Ukraine, as well as Turkey being an active NATO member, Putin trusts Erdogan, while the other always keeps his promises. However, membership in NATO remains Ankara's priority. On the other hand, in contrast to the other NATO members, Turkey did not close its airspace for Russia, whereas it closed the Dardanelles and Bosphorus for all the warships under the Montreux Convention.
According to Mr Nadein-Raevskii, the fact of Turkey constantly emphasizing that Russia and Ukraine are friendly nations is evidence of Ankara realizing that imposing sanctions against Russia will cause more damage to Turkey itself than to Russia. The Turkish president is well aware of Moscow's potential to resist the sanctions. So he is seeking the role of a leading regional power, without worsening his relations with either Russia or Ukraine. And Erdogan's western partners are incapable of making him break this neutrality.
"Another question is that Moscow is not at all enthusiastic about the prospects of Turkey's mediation. And Ankara's unfriendly steps toward Russia are accompanied with statements allowing Turkey to remain the only NATO member capable of maintaining contacts with Russia. In this context, Turkey is likely to attempt maneuvering between Russia and the West, while remaining neutral. I do not at all rule out coordinated actions by Russia and Turkey in Ukraine in the future, which was the case in Nagorno- Karabakh, with mutual interests considered. Such a scenario appears rather complicated now, but it cannot be ruled out," Mr Nadein-Raevskii said.