ArmInfo. The worst developments in the conflict in Ukraine are ahead, the political analyst Saro Saroyan said in an interview with ArmInfo. He agrees with the forecast based on the Russian president's telephone conversation with his French counterpart.
"I can say that while speaking of Ukraine's demilitarization and denazification as his goals, the Russian leader is quite frank. And in this context, the military occupation of Ukrainian territories will continue. Ukrainian cities will be consistently destroyed along with the their economy and infrastructure, to say nothing of the dozens of thousands of victims on both the sides. Another possible consequence of this geopolitical earthquake is a prospect of revolution inside Russia, with a civil war not ruled out," Mr Saroyan said.
As regards the causes of the new Russian-Ukrainian military confrontation, he considers it part of a chain reaction triggered by the Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression against Armenia and Artsakh on September 27, 2020. That event launched a process of formation of a new balance of forces in the South Caucasus. And with no political or diplomatic instruments for settling the problems left, a war in Ukraine became unavertible.
The war will end only after certain geopolitical circles consider their tasks accomplished - and those tasks were impossible to accomplish by political or diplomatic means. In this context, Mr Saroyan points out geopolitical interests in forming a structure in eastern Ukraine that would advance Ukrainian, Russian and third parties' interests.
"My more accurate forecast is Russian control over the entire left-bank territory of the Dnieper. And the arguments, names or entities do not matter. All this is possible due to third forces' actions toward Russia. One more geopolitical tendency should be considered as well - expansion of Russia's influence over the post-Soviet space. And, after South Caucasus, Ukraine is in the way of implementation of this project, which is by and large the reason for the current developments," the expert said