Friday, February 25 2022 14:07

ArmInfo. A number of events preceded the ongoing situation in Ukraine, and the escalation was not a surprise, the political expert Andrias Ghukasyan told ArmInfo.   

As to whether the military intervention will develop into a  full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia, he said that it depends on  Kiev's reaction. The recognition of the DPR and LPR, along with  Russia's other actions, was aimed at presenting a new ultimatum to  the West, particularly a threat of scaling up the hostilities in  Ukraine is case new harsh sanctions are imposed on Russia.  

As regards the Armenian leadership's possible response to the latest  developments, Mr Ghukasyan said that, along with its intention to  remain Russia's ally, Armenia's government should think of  anti-crisis measures to reduce the negative impact on the western  sanctions on Russia on Armenia's economy. It is blatantly obvious the  international sanctions against Russia will affect Armenia, let alone  the fact that, with no concept of developing relations with the West  at hand, Yerevan will have to rely on its own resources. 

Otherwise, Armenia will face a need for a domestic political  reshuffle, primarily in view of the fact that the power and the  opposition formed as a result of last year's parliamentary elections  altogether rule out any effective work with the West. 

Neither Nikol Pashinyan nor Robert Kocharyan or even Serzh Sargsyan  can be a reliable partner for the West. Moreover, Armenia's political  system is pro-Russian and disregards any prospects or opportunities  for cooperating with the West.

"The situation is completely crystallized - reforms in Armenia  require political will. But I do not see any preconditions for such a  will. Both the ruling force and the parliamentary opposition are  pursuing their own rather than national interests. Our political  elite is not at all ready to yield the power in favor of Armenia's  relations with the West of a new quality. But the very ruling force  is perfectly aware it is incapable of making such a geopolitical  U-turn. Nor is the Kocharyan- or Sargsyan-led opposition," Mr  Ghukasyan said.