ArmInfo.A so-called big war with indirect or even direct participation of major geopolitical players has already become inevitable. And when exactly it will start, in my opinion, is only a matter of time. Independent political analyst Saro Saroyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"Ukraine, the current situation around Ukraine in this sense is just the tip of the iceberg. In my opinion, the solution of the tasks that global geopolitical forces face today leaves no alternative but to solve them through war. And the political shifts, movements and changes in the rebalancing of power and positions of some players in recent months speak volumes. The main thing in all this is to realize that supra-State structures, centers of power, Powers have ripened problems and tasks that cannot be solved without wars," he stressed.
In this light, Moscow's recognition of the independence of Donbass was expected for Saroyan. And he does not at all believe that this process should necessarily have been preceded by a military Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the contrary, according to the analyst, by recognizing the two republics, the Russian Federation provided legal insurance for its own, including the future military presence on this area. And now, according to him, the substantiation of the further start of military operations requires time.
According to Saroyan, neither side of the conflict is willing to take the blame for initiating military operations. Accordingly, it is necessary to prepare an appropriate foundation, starting with machine-gun firefights, which will subsequently gradually develop into artillery preparation and the use of heavier types of weapons. After that, it will no longer be clear who, in fact, started shooting, and the parties, as in all other similar wars, will try to shift the responsibility for the start of the escalation onto each other.
Noting that the Russian Federation itself is the center of power, as well as China's interest in supporting it against its main adversary in the face of the West, the analyst stressed that, in this light, there is no need to talk about the imbalance of the global power balance in favor of Ukraine. From this point of view, the prospects for the deployment of military operations and, most importantly, where they will lead the parties to the conflict, in his opinion, look rather vague.
"Given the fact that the main players in the current global confrontation have nuclear weapons at their disposal, it is clear that a large-scale war with their participation can have very dangerous and grave consequences, for everyone. But in any case, in my opinion the processes around Ukraine are just beginning and military operations are still pending. I also expect very significant and large-scale geopolitical shifts. And it is completely unclear whether there are forces in the world as of today that can prevent these shifts and a major war as their catalyst," Saroyan summed up.