ArmInfo. The current geopolitical confrontation with the West will affect Russia's positions in all the regions of its presence, including the South Caucasus, Alexander Skakov of the Institute of Oriental Studies, RF Academy of Sciences, told ArmInfo.
"At its negotiations with the West Moscow is now trying to resolve the strategic issues of vital importance for it. We realize the current Ukraine crisis is a much more serious problem for Russia. And the crisis in relations with the West is Russia's top foreign policy priority, which requires substantial resources. And the situation is changing day by day," Mr Skakov said.
The unprecedented contacts between Moscow and Washington and involvement of the EU member-states' leaders in the processes is evidence of a global crisis in the Russia-West relations. This being so, the implementation of the Russia-mediated agreements reached after the 44-day war are now far from being at the top of Moscow's agenda. So no breakthrough should be expected in the implementation of the trilateral statements of November 9, 2020, and January 11, 2021, the expert said.
Amid the global developments, Russia is pursuing turtle-pace diplomacy in the Armenian-Azerbaijani direction. In this context, the expert singles out the active anti-Russian policy of Washington and London in the South Caucasus.
As regards the deepening disagreements between the West and Russia over Ukraine, Mr Skakov believes that the USA and Great Britain have combined their efforts to build up their presence in Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan by forcing Russia out of the region. In question is neither more nor less the South Caucasus states' accession to NATO though neither Washington nor London is yet going to legally finalize the process.
Another factor in favor of NATO's bolstering its positions in the South Caucasus is, according to Mr Skakov, Turkey's much stronger positions in the region after the 44-day war, which has seriously affected Iran's regional influence. By being passive during the last war in Karabakh Iran ended up facing an alignment of forces in the region not at all to its advantage.
"With Turkey and Azerbaijan building up their alliance implies a prospect of Turkish - NATO - troops' presence not only near Nagorno-Karabakh, but also along Iran's border with Azerbaijan. I think it is a redline for Tehran. So they will spare no effort to rule this prospect out, including steps to establish relations with Baku that would rule out Turkey's, that is, NATO's presence along Iran's borders," Mr Skakov said.