Armenia`s ex-president warns against Armenia`s Adzharianization

ArmInfo.At his press conference on Thursday Armenia's ex- president Robert Kocharyan pointed out three components of Armenia's security: armed forces,  CSTO and relations with Russia, including the three  cooperation-regulating agreements.  

Elaborating on the first component, Armenia's army, Mr Kocharyan  stated that Armenia's armed forces are incapable of ensuring the  country's security and hardly anything was done last year to restore  the army's efficiency. Striking evidence thereof is last year's  events in Sisian. 

"And the latest exposure of espionage is evidence of the moral and  psychological atmosphere in our armed forces. The army's budget is  not optimistic. The government is not paying proper attention to the  army and the incumbent authorities do not appear to need an efficient  army. Even when they raise pensions of prosecutors they forgive about  officers," Mr Kocharyan said.    

The second component is the CSTO's efficiency. It did not interfere  when Armenia was attacked. Mr Kocharyan pointed out that the CSTO was  established in 2002, with the Russia-Belarus, Russia-Armenia and  Russia-Central Asia vectors. 

"Challenges are different in the three directions. In many respects  they have nothing in common. They all are parts of one organization,  with Russia playing the central role and focusing its attention on  all threats," Mr Kocharyan said. 

In the context of Armenia as a CSTO member, he said that Georgia and  Iran can hardly be expected to threaten Armenia. "The two remaining  states are Azerbaijan and Turkey. And they are presenting extremely  serious threats to Armenia. We must not disregard the fact that all  the CSTO member-states, except for Russia, have much warmer and  deeper relations with both Azerbaijan and Turkey than with Armenia in  all the fields," Mr Kocharyan said. 

Moreover, some of the Central Asian states, Turkey and Azerbaijan are  members of the same organization and their leaders have closer  personal contacts. "So it was na‹ve to think that the CSTO could in  any way respond to that attack. And it is not because the CSTO is a  dead or inefficient structure. It is rather efficient when all the  members' interests are concurrent, and Kazakhstan is an example. This  is a fact we cannot ignore. Should Armenia remain a CSTO member? Yes,  of course it should. First, because no other structure could replace  the CSTO. Second, numerous documents signed within this organization  regulate our military and technical cooperation with Russia," Mr  Kocharyan said. 

With respect to the third component, cooperation with Russia, he  noted security is the only factor working in Armenia now. 

"It is an efficient factor, but the war revealed a number of  problems. First, the absence of border with Russia revealed certain  limits to Russia's interference and support. No answer has so far  been given to the question as to why Georgia's air space was closed  for military aircraft. Was not that a surprise to our authorities? No  answer has so far been given to the question as to why Iran's air  space was closed. The two factors had their effect on the results of  the war," Mr Kocharyan said. According to him, accusations against  the authorities depend on whether they had or had not considered the  factors. In the latter case they resorted to a conflict in Tavush. 

Russia's mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process greatly  restricts its free actions. Another fact is Turkey's growing role in  the south Caucasus. And if the above is considered in one context, on  can see a dismal picture, Mr Kocharyan said, adding he does not see  any serious steps to improve the situation.  As to the steps that  need to be made now, he pointed out measures that would enable  independent activities of Armenia's armed forces for at least half a  year and creation of a military-industrial complex. Otherwise,  Armenia will sooner or later face similar challenges. 

Mr Kocharyan highlights the importance of realizing if Armenia is  capable of accomplishing such tasks by itself. 

"I do not think so. Therefore, we neeed to know if Russia is ready to  render such assistance to Armenia in terms of scale and quality. I am  sure it is possible. But I doubt whether such a request has been  made. We also have serious questions concerning the air space and a  possibility of Armenia's total blockade in the future," Mr Kocharyan  said. He said he had never faced such problems or thought Armenia  would ever come to such relations with Georgia. 

In this context, Armenia's ex-president put a rhetoric question as to  whether it is the only way.  "Yes, there is an alternative way, but I  do not quite like it: accepting the Turkish-Azerbaijani threat as  irresistible and yielding to it. It is a way too. Following the way  of Adzharianization of Armenia. Turkey will stop perceiving Armenia  as an obstacle to its programmes in one case alone - total influence  on our policy. It implies Turkey's dominant role in our economy and  influence on our political elites. When will it be possible? When  Russia's diminishing influence is replaced with Turkey's influence.  It will be possible if Armenia surrenders Artsakh. It is one of the  preconditions that could be set to Armenia. And the USA will  certainly support this policy as, with the present confrontation  between the West and Russia, it suggests a way of putting an end to  Russian influence," Mr Kocharyan said. 

In this context, he points out that Armenia is now following the  second way. The difference between the two ways is that Russia  prefers a powerful partner in the South Caucasus. And Armenia had  until a certain moment been such a factor in the region. 

"Turkey is interested in an extremely weak Armenia as in this case it  cannot be an obstacle to Turkey's long-term goals. This is the  difference," Mr Kocharyan said.  

All these questions are evidence of the Armenian society's negative  attitude to such processes. However, Georgia's example has shown that  active propaganda can change the public sentiment in a short period. 

What is in question is not commitment to Russia, but Armenia's  progress, its future and national interests, Mr Kocharyan said.