ArmInfo. In the light of the recent events, caused by the rather tough bargaining between Russia and the United States around Ukraine, Russia, no doubt, will strive to further strengthen its own position in the countries of the EAEU and the CSTO. Director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
" It is about the attempts of the member states of these two organizations to develop a common, consolidated position on Ukraine of course, stems from the corresponding position of the Russian Federation. The CSTO itself, I think, will not really interfere in the conflict around Ukraine. "But Moscow may need the statement of this organization as part of the information support of the Russia-West bargaining," he said.
Within the framework of such a policy of the Russian Federation, the political scientist does not at all exclude even the demands addressed to Armenia to limit contacts with the West. And against the backdrop of a serious decrease in the level of subjectivity of Armenia due to the results of the 44-day war, according to its forecasts, Yerevan will not be able to seriously resist such demands.
In Iskandaryan's opinion, the existing, increased level of confrontation between the West and the Russian Federation, one way or another, will have a negative impact on Armenia. At the same time, if it becomes necessary to make a choice between the Russian Federation and the United States, in his opinion, Armenia will have very little room for maneuvering in order to avoid such a prospect. Meanwhile, according to his forecasts, the latter is not excluded at all. At the same time, the political scientist does not see any special prerequisites for a special influence on Armenia, in particular on its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, due to the actual participation in the crisis around Ukraine and Turkey.
"In general, Turkey today is focused on the South Caucasus to a much greater extent than on Ukraine. And the growing level of Turkish influence in our region is a very serious problem for Armenia. And, let's face it, as of today, Ankara is already claiming the status of a dominant player in the South Caucasus. And common interests with Baku only reinforce this prospect, especially in the light of the complete, perhaps situational, identity of Turkish and Azerbaijani interests following the 44-day war in everything related to Armenia and Artsakh.